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After years and years of embarrassing showings in NCAA tournament pools, I decided that my futility had to stop. There had to be a way to fill out a successful bracket without being Dick Vitale. And considering how often Vitale's picks are TOTALLY WRONG BABY, I figured I might even be able to beat the so-called experts at their own game.
And last year I did just that. Using my handy 10-step guide and a dash of luck, I correctly predicted seven of the Elite Eight, and walked away with my super-large tournament pool's top prize. And an everlasting love of Al Horford to boot.
The best part of my tourney success? I had watched maybe five games all year. So if you're like me and have limited knowledge of the current college basketball season, there might be hope for your bracket after all. Just follow my 10 simple rules, and I guarantee you'll do better than you think. Or at least better than you would picking at random.
(And if for some reason you don't do any better, it's your own fault for listening to someone who just told you they don't know anything about college basketball.)
Rule No. 1: Regions, regions, regions
Nobody likes getting booed, and nobody likes hearing random strangers say unprintable things about their sister, mom, dog, brother and sexual preferences. Some athletes obviously get off on this type of atmosphere, but growing a thick skin and learning how to perform in a hostile environment takes practice.
Which is why location is the most important (and often overlooked) thing to pay attention to when filling out your tournament bracket. Consider this: The average college athlete is 19-years-old and has little-to-no practice in an arena of 40,000 strangers screaming about how he has similar hobbies as the Village People.
So make sure you know where the games are being played. Is Stanford playing in nearby Oakland or far-off Miami? Is Duke playing in the friendly confines of Charlotte, or the hostile territory of Chicago? Is Boston College playing down the pike in Springfield, or deep the heart of Texas? Just something to think about before you pick an East Coast team to survive in out west.
Rule No. 2: We're going streaking!
Don't know who's hot in college basketball? Don't worry about it. That's what the Internet is for. If a team has won 10 games in a row, including their recent conference tournament, then they're entering the NCAA tournament with a certain swagger. If a team is backing in, and hasn't won a meaningful game since December, then stay far, far away.
Rule No. 3: Are they rank tested?
A lot of people were hot for No. 1 seeded Memphis last year. Knowing little about the team, I checked out how they did vs. ranked opponents. It wasn't too impressive. So keep in mind that if a team has gone 5-2 vs. ranked opponents and competed well on the road, they're a better bet than a team that went 1-2 vs. ranked foes and got blown out in their only game against a top 10 team.
Rule No. 4: It's basketball; go with "basketball" schools
Schools with a rich basketball history draw the best players, the best coaches, the best crowds and, as UCLA has showed the past few weeks, the best calls. The only reason people remember the time David beat Goliath was because Goliath kicked David's rear end many times before.
Rule No. 5: It's basketball; don't go with "football" schools
Yes, I know Florida won it all the past two years. Know how many times they won it all before that? Zero. So until a team establishes itself as a formidable basketball opponent, I tend to shy away from them in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee might be good this year, but they've never won the national title and are playing with years and years of bad basketball baggage. Something to consider should they run into a North Carolina or a Georgetown.
Rule No. 6: Avoid one-man armies
If you can only name one player on a given team, chances are that person is going to be hounded like crazy, forcing the fifth-best guy on a one-man squad to play the hero. I know you want to see Michael Beasley and Eric Gordon play as many games as possible. Just keep in mind the odds are against that.
Rule No. 7: Don't misplay favorites
Unless you went to Duke, you probably don't like Duke. It's only natural. But now that Duke is good again, don't pick them to lose a second-round game just for spite. Picking more games correctly feels better than hating a team even more because the spoiled your upset pick, and everyone else in your pool gets points each time they win.
Rule No. 8: Have they been experienced?
After Florida won it all in 2006, the entire starting five stayed in school in an effort to repeat as champs the next year. Worked like a charm. So if you're having trouble picking a game, take a look at the players. When in doubt, take the team with two seniors, three juniors, and a pile of tourney experience over the team starting four freshmen and a sophomore.
Rule No. 9: Don't be cute
Watching a 13 seed defeat a highly touted powerhouse is what makes the tournament so fun. But the reasons these games are called "upsets" is because the outcome makes virtually everyone who filled out a bracket "upset." So unless you've got a good reason, stick with the favorites. If you're in a pool with 100 people, it just doesn't make sense to be the one moron who picks UNC to lose in Round 2.
Rule No. 10: Maybe chokers are called chokers because they often choke
Just something to think about before picking Kansas or Stanford to go all the way.
