First things first. There is no question that the Orioles will not be contending for the American League East title this year. Or next year.
There's also no question that they won't be in the running for a wild-card spot this year. Or next year.
But the Orioles are taking positive steps to right the wrongs of the last 10 years. They've decided to work hard to build something resembling a farm system and get most of their talent from there rather than just signing big-name free agents each year.
When owner Peter Angelos began doing this, in the same manner that George Steinbrenner loved to do for years, it basically ruined the team. The Orioles, who had baseball's best farm system for years in the 1960s, '70s and '80s, were left with only a handful of good young players because they traded them all away or let them go.
But even though building a farm system has long been proven the correct way to keep a good team at the top, it's something that takes a while to do. The good pieces need time to be put into place and developed. That's why the Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard trades will help this team in the long run.
It's also why the Brian Roberts trade -- when it happens this spring or this summer -- will be another positive. If the Orioles can get four or five good players for Roberts, they'll have gotten nearly two full starting lineups of players. They'll find some good prospects there, develop them and get some good use out of them.
But that's why the Orioles will have a starting lineup this year that's going to have a lot of questions. Simply put, this team will not hit for power. It will not be scoring eight runs per game.
But there are going to be some positives. Right fielder Nick Markakis is on the verge of being one of the top players in the game. Roberts -- while still here -- is an outstanding leadoff hitter and second baseman. First baseman Kevin Millar isn't the prototypical power hitter, but he's a good RBI man. Third baseman Melvin Mora will want to show that his slumps last year are gone, and he's a solid player. He has enjoyed his best spring ever. Catcher Ramon Hernandez is in shape and it's a contract year, so watch out. And center fielder Adam Jones could be the biggest surprise of all. It also will be interesting to see how Luke Scott does in left field, especially if he's in the lineup on a regular basis -- he's certainly got the tools.
The starting rotation and bullpen could be very painful to watch at times. The two aces, on paper, should be Adam Loewen (coming off surgery) and Jeremy Guthrie (impressive last year, but won seven games). Daniel Cabrera looks like Jim Palmer one day and Jimmy Kimmel the next. Steve Trachsel is up and down, and the O's don't even know who their fifth starter is going to be.
In the bullpen, Jamie Walker is solid and consistent, as is Chad Bradford. But with Chris Ray out for much of the season, the question is how well George Sherrill can handle the closer's job. Still a whole of questions and what-ifs here.
The Orioles should have a good chunk of speed on the bench, especially with players like Jay Payton, Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum helping. But there's not going to be a whole lot of punch there, something that could limit the amount of moves the skipper can make.
Manager Dave Trembley also is a big question. He did a good job last year after taking over from Sam Perlozzo, but he had never managed at this level before. Trembley is a well-respected baseball man who works on hard on fundamentals and creating a good environment in the clubhouse and around the ballpark. He should get this team started on its turnaround.
PRIMED FOR A BIG SEASON
RHP Jeremy Guthrie was among the rookie statistical leaders last year -- second with 123 strikeouts, 3.70 ERA and 175 1/3 innings pitched, third in batting average against, tied for third with 26 starts and seven wins -- and he pitched many more innings than he had ever pitched in a season.
ON THE DECLINE
OF Jay Payton missed a lot of spring training with illness after having one of his poorest seasons last year when he hit .256 with only seven home runs. He has tried hard, but he's already lost his everyday spot and isn't likely to get a lot of opportunity to prove himself as the season progresses.
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