By the Numbers: A mound of data

Last week, my Spring Flings column highlighted some hitters who have made a bigger splash than anticipated during this preseason. Now we turn our attention to the pitchers who have performed beyond expectations. Some are established big-leaguers who have failed to overwhelm; others are trying to get their first real toehold on a roster spot. Looking at their recent statistical trends, we can see if there are reasons to think that they can stay on a roll after opening day.

Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore: After four major league seasons, Cabrera has yet to post an ERA below 4.50 or a WHIP below 1.40. This May, he turns 27 and should be entering the prime of his career. If 2008 is the year Cabrera puts it all together, then his 3.12 spring ERA would seem to be a good sign. However, behind the new and improved ERA are some familiar trends. In 17 1/3 spring innings, Cabrera has struck out 14 batters but walked 12. He is getting away with his usual elevated walk rate, because he has given up only one home run. With a larger regular season sample size and pitching roughly half his games in Camden Yards (he gave up 18 of his 25 homers at home last year), he will have to be very lucky to keep this act going.

Zach Duke, Pittsburgh:: After a stellar 2005 rookie campaign, Duke has struggled with his performance and an elbow injury. This spring, a healthier Zach is back with a 3.32 ERA over 19 innings. One of the most encouraging signs is that he has not walked a single batter this spring. He is the only pitcher with that distinction who has thrown at least 15 innings. Even when Duke has struggled over the past two years, good control has been a part of his game, so he needs to get his strikeout rate back near its 2005 level if he is to be successful. So far, he has struck out only nine batters this spring. Keep an eye on Duke, and if he can maintain his K/9 rate near 6.0, he is worth rostering.

Dana Eveland, Oakland: Eveland has nailed down a job in the A's starting rotation, but which version of the lefty will they get? Oakland hopes they are getting the same pitcher who tore through the minor leagues and put up the dazzling stats in the table below, and not the pitcher who has been ineffective over several brief major league stints. After losing much of 2007 to a torn tendon in his finger, Eveland is off to a great start in '08. He has struck out 14 batters in 15 innings, while walking only four, compiling a miniscule 1.20 ERA. Of course, this is a tiny amount of data to go on, but the bulk of Eveland's track record suggests that this 24 year-old is primed for success at the major league level. All he needs is an opportunity, and the A's are giving him just that.

Joel Hanrahan, Washington: Zach Duke not walking any batters for the entire spring has been a neat trick, but Hanrahan not giving up a single run is even better. His 13 shutout innings have been well earned, as he has struck out 14 while only walking two. Hanrahan has shown the ability to get strikeouts, but he has struggled with walks and homers for his entire career. The Nats have given Hanrahan a middle relief role, so he is not likely to have a Fantasy impact unless he is promoted to the rotation or the closer's role. Given his track record, he will probably struggle just to keep his roster spot, so he can be ignored for Fantasy purposes.

John Lannan, Washington: Before last season, Lannan had never pitched at a level higher than A-ball. The Nats' organization moved him through four levels in '07, culminating in six starts for the big league club. Lannan's ERA at each stop ranged from outstanding to respectable, even though he demonstrated a weak skill set everywhere he went. This spring he has put up another impressive ERA (2.18) and this time he backed it up with 16 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. Unlike Hanrahan, Lannan did not make the final cut, so he is going to have to prove himself again in the minors. If he is recalled, Lannan is going to have show the ability to strike batters out over more than 20-plus innings to merit Fantasy consideration.

Darren O'Day, Los Angeles Angels: He hasn't pitched as much as 30 innings above A-ball, but O'Day actually has a shot to open the season in the Angels' injury-depleted bullpen. His dominating performance (1.72 ERA, 14 Ks, 1 BB in 15 2/3 preseason innings) has been a great story. If this story is to have a happy ending, he must stay far away from your Fantasy roster. He was mediocre in Double A last year, and that was as a 24 year-old. Despite his spectacular March numbers, this does not bode well for major league success.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.