Around the Diamond: What history tells us

In Hollywood, the big-budget blockbuster movies are usually saved for summer runs, when kids have the most available time to see movies like "Iron Man" three or four times. The critically-acclaimed films are usually saved for a winter run, hoping to stick in the minds of the Academy for some Oscars recognition. In between those times, you're usually looking at classics like "The Eye" and "Superhero Movie."

You'll often find that baseball players have different times when they put out their best production, and underwhelm in other months. The season is six months long, and a hot starter can turn into a cold stinker quickly. Normally, the breakdown is before the All-Star break and after the All-Star break, but we're going to look at the first month of the season specifically, and how it compares to a player's production over their previous three-year averages in that month.

I asked the fine people that provide us with stats, the Elias Sports Bureau, to send me the average first-five weeks stats of major leaguers over the past three years.

These numbers should help us examine whether good players are just being lucky or if they've developed into above-average players.

Below are the top 20 hitters that showed the greatest Fantasy improvement for the first five weeks of this season compared to how they've performed on average in the first five weeks of the past three seasons (2005-07).

Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD: Only Utley and Lance Berkman are putting up better Head-to-Head numbers among hitters than Furcal right now. He's 30 years old in a contract season -- and he's hitting 136 points higher than his three-year average numbers. Can he keep it up? He has never had more walks than strikeouts in eight seasons before this one, but he's doing it this year (19/15). And you'll be happy to know that through his career, April has always been his worst month (.264 BA -- including this past month's numbers). No reason to think he's going to come apart -- this year. This could be his last big-money contract coming up. One interesting point is that in his last contract year, with Atlanta in 2005, he didn't put up extraordinary numbers outside of steals (.284-12-58-100-46). I'm dying to say, "Sell high," but I can't.

Eric Hinske is off to a great start and can play multiple positions for you. (US Presswire)

Chase Utley, 2B, PHI: Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg are the only two second basemen to ever hit 40 or more home runs. Utley is on pace to blast 63 dingers and he has proven in the past that he can post a 200-hit season -- if he stays healthy. Hornsby is actually the only second baseman to lead the majors in homers (1925 and 1929), which Utley also has a chance to do. He could be the third Phillies player in a row to win the NL MVP. If a Fantasy draft were held today, he'd be the No. 1 pick -- without question.

Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF, TB: The 2002 AL Rookie of the Year caught Carlos Pena for the team lead in homers last week (Pena has since hit another), and he's filling in all over the place. His ownership is up to 43 percent and he has great eligibility flexibility, plus the Rays have him around the heart of their batting order. His stats have been boosted this much mainly because his numbers were down over the past couple seasons while he platooned in Boston and Toronto.

Xavier Nady, OF, PIT: Broke out to an amazing start, but he continues to piece together great stretches. The 29-year-old right fielder has paced the Pirates, along with Nate McLouth, and he is batting .529 (9-for-17) with seven RBI in his past five games. This is just his second full season in Pittsburgh, and he's on pace for career numbers. Again though, the Bucs aren't a strong offense to keep giving him this many RBI chances.

Emil Brown, OF, OAK: The Athletics are playing way above their heads this season and Brown is one of the main benefactors. Only four hitters have more RBI (27) this season.

• He has the same batting average (.287) as he did in two of his three seasons in Kansas City.
• He's on pace for just 14 homers -- and he has never hit more than 17 in a season.
• But his 128 RBI are 50 percent better than his career-high.
• He's hitting .464 with runners in scoring position, which is about 180 points higher than his career numbers with runners at second or third base.
• CBSSports.com Fantasy owners don't buy his start either -- he's still available in 63 percent of leagues.

Chris Snyder, C, ARI: We expected huge things and seeing his name here is good news, but then it's reasoned out that he hasn't had the same amount of opportunities (at-bats) in all three of the past Aprils. He's still striking out twice as much as he walks, but the D-Backs have been so good offensively, he's going to blow by his RBI career-high of 47. That makes him a solid No. 2 catcher in any league.

Time to rise and shine

Vladimir Guerrero, OF, LAA: You look down the list of disappointments and it's not surprising to see Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones and Adam Dunn there. But Vlad? His batting average (.256) is nearly 100 points lower than his three-year number (.342), despite the Angels offense hitting so well (fifth in scoring). He'll come around soon, although 30 homers might not be in his future.

Travis Hafner, DH, CLE: Pronk is pulling his head up and with it his lead shoulder when he swings, which is forcing pop-ups and flyballs when he misses contact by a fraction of an inch. His slump is going on two seasons now, but seeing what he did in 2006 should keep him in your lineup -- plus he's still on pace for 91 RBI.

Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM: Another case of a slow starter ready to break out -- Beltran has reached base in 27 of 29 starts this season. Remember that he missed some time this spring because he was rehabbing from two knee surgeries. The Mets are only 22nd in scoring, but he is tied for 14th -- good things are ahead.

Pedro Feliz, 3B, PHI: Which one of these names don't belong with the others? Feliz has cut down his strikeouts, getting his K/BB ratio from 8.61 to just 1.38 so far. His homers will come and the offense around him is superb, which should spell for more runs and RBI chances.

Below are the top 15 pitchers that showed the greatest Fantasy improvement for the first five weeks of the season compared to how they've performed on average in the first five weeks of the past three seasons (2005-07).

Judging pitchers in this way is a little different than looking at hitting numbers, considering the fact that it's difficult to find many pitchers that have stayed healthy in the first five weeks of each of the past four seasons -- including this one. Plus, I've eliminated closers from the assessment because looking back three years ago, there were really only 11 that are still closing now among the top 30 in saves in 2005. Some of those pitchers are starting pitchers now (Miguel Batista, Ryan Dempster and Braden Looper) and some have gone from closer to middle relief and back again (Brian Fuentes).

While we're on the subject of inconsistent pitching -- have we mentioned you should wait on it in drafts?

Ryan Dempster, CHC: As scary as the idea was to move Dempster back to being a starter, he has actually been one of the bright spots in the Cubs' rotation. In his only loss of the season, he didn't even allow an earned run. He's only starting in two-thirds of Fantasy leagues right now, but his dominance (K/9) is up 0.81 from the three-year number, and his control (K/BB) is up 1.11 to 2.22.

Roy Halladay, TOR: When we look at dominance, command (BB/9) and control, we get a better idea of how a pitcher is throwing than by just looking at his wins or ERA in such a short span. Halladay has struck out nine more batters, while decreasing his walks by one. His dominance is up 1.00 to 4.22 strikeouts per nine, and his control is up 1.66.

Jon Garland, LAA: Things you know about Garland: He'll get you around six innings, long enough to get a decision (good or bad), and he'll strike out very few of the hitters he faces. His dominance and command are lower than the past three seasons though. He doesn't do enough in the other categories though to make you live with the low Ks and high ERA.

Time to rise and shine

Chris Young, SD: Last season, around the middle of the year, I warned you to beware of Young's awesome start. He hurt his oblique and that 6-foot-10 frame just couldn't handle the workload he was putting it under. And looking at his current stats, you're probably not very impressed (only two wins, 1.380 WHIP), but his dominance and control numbers are up because of his 33 strikeouts (top 30) and his 8.51 K/9 rank him 19th in the majors -- just ahead of teammate Jake Peavy. Let's not forget he's getting just 3.12 runs of support from his Padres offense. That number ranks him 293rd among all pitchers that have thrown at least 20 innings so far this season.

Erik Bedard, SEA: A hip injury kept Fantasy owners from seeing what Bedard could do over a full month of April. But he has looked very good in the starts he has made, despite his numbers being just a bit lower than normal. His dominance is down 1.59 and his command is down 1.50. Make no mistake, he'll be back as a dominant Fantasy ace soon.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN: Manager Dusty Baker is so fraught over Arroyo's output that he has openly questioned whether or not the former Red Sox starter has an injury. Arroyo denies any pain and his command/control/dominance numbers aren't that off from what he has done in each of the past three Aprils. But his ERA is ridiculous (8.63) and he has just one win. The Reds currently have four of the top 10 strikeout men in the game (Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez). Arroyo is not a strikeout fiend -- but he has been known to eat some innings, and with that comes strikeouts. Watch the waiver wire for his availability.

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