Draft prep: Sophs get second chance to impress

Note: This is Part IV of our pre-draft series on sleepers and breakouts. We have already dealt with the 27-year-olds , third-year starting pitchers , top 25 rookies and top 100 prospects .

Much like you would never root for injury -- unless you own Clay Buchholz and your rival had Curt Schilling, of course -- you usually don't root for some of your favorite prospects to fail.

We do. Well, yours truly at least.

Felix Pie had a subpar freshman season, but he has the tools to bust out in 2008. (US Presswire)

Seeing a highly touted rookie fall flat on his face gives us a feeling of excitement, although it is usually after a good bit of cursing and subsequent wistful thoughts to Fantasy Football Draft Day come midsummer. "Gonna do it right this draft season," you say to yourself.

No more buying into the likes of Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Adam Jones and Mike Pelfrey because Baseball America endlessly sings their praises. If you drafted those guys last year, your Fantasy team might have looked great on paper last spring. And awful in the final standings on the website last October.

Here is where the excitement comes in. It is a new year and, more important, a second chance.

The hype on those 2007 rookies was so high, you had to pick them too early just to get your hands on them. This year, their bitter owners not only refuse to mention their names, they wouldn't dare draft them again. But, you have to remember, the scouts saw something there and Baseball America usually winds up being right more often than they are wrong in the long run.

We saw failure. And now you should see opportunity.

In the next part of our series on sleepers and breakouts, we break down the top overlooked sophomores. In this segment, the theory is we have seen a player make his first impression and, generally, the baseball world (specifically, your 12-team Fantasy world) was not impressed.

The players ranked here must have had their rookie eligibility run out last season. They are ordered on their potential to outperform their draft position this spring. The first five are potential late-round steals and the second five are earlier-round breakout candidates.

1. Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks

Reynolds was at times spectacular last year, especially when you consider his manager said watching him take batting practice was like watching a young Mark McGwire. Wow! It is hard to be more hyped than that. But he also had some real cold streaks and there might be some leagues where he goes undrafted. Our projections on him are .279, 21 HR, 79 RBI and 74 R, but we see someone with .280-30-100-100-0 potential in his second year (his first full one). Something that might also drag down his value: The possible return of Chad Tracy (knee) from microfracture surgery. That is good news to us, because unlike some, we have no doubts Reynolds will play over Tracy.

2. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks

Upton didn't make much of an impression down the stretch last year, hitting just .221 in just enough at-bats to lose rookie eligibility -- bummer for the 20-year-old who just might be the best outfielder in Fantasy in a few years, but great news for us. In 385 at-bats in the minors last season, he hit .319 with 19 homers and 18 stolen bases, his 56 walks contributing to a .410 on-base percentage and .961 OPS. The D-Backs must be confident he is their man in right field this spring, having dealt youthful and still more experienced up-and-comers Carlos Gonzalez and Carlos Quentin this winter. You cannot expect the 30-30 player we figure he will eventually be, but if he comes anywhere near what Chris B. Young did for the D-Backs last year, you are going to have a dynamite sleeper on your hands.

3. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

At 22, the O's new center fielder has a career .230 average with a .267 OBP and a .353 SLUG. The only sleeper-like thing about those numbers is it looks like he has been asleep. But 2007 was his breakthrough season in Triple-A: .294-25-84-75-8 (.382 OBP, .586 SLUG). He has long been considered an elite prospect and the O's will give him every chance to show his talent in center this spring. There will be many Fantasy leagues where he goes undrafted, but the guess here is by the end of the year, there will be few leagues in which he is not owned -- a definitive sleeper.

4. Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins

By most accounts, the package the Twins received for Johan Santana was reported to be a pile of garbage. It might be, we suppose, but Gomez is a fast piece of garbage. League steals leader Jose Reyes admitted last year that Gomez is the faster man. He is bigger, too, impressing his new manager with his strength when he reported to camp. Gomez could be a .280-20-80-100-50 player in his prime, a Carl Crawford-type, but if his on-base percentage is anywhere above .300 and he is getting full-time at-bats in the leadoff spot, he could steal 40-plus bases as a rookie. That is a total that piques the interest of Rotisserie owners and could make him a steal in the latter rounds.

5. Felix Pie, OF, Cubs

Yet another something-out-of-nothing center field phenom, but trust us, these guys don't grow on trees. Pie, who will be just 23 this spring, has long been one of the most intriguing outfield prospects in the minor leagues. That is the problem. He hasn't been able to take his act to the majors in full force, hitting just .215 in 177 at-bats as a rookie last year. He is a physical specimen that has all the tools to be a superstar, though. He showed that in Triple-A last season, hitting .362 with nine homers, nine steals, a .410 OBP and a .563 SLUG. He reminds us a lot of Curtis Granderson, but you can't expect him to reach that level of prominence in his first full season. Taking that flier late, just in case, makes him a low-risk, potentially high-reward guy on Draft Day.

And now for the earlier-round sophomore breakout candidates:

6. Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals

Gordon might be a candidate to be the top overlooked sophomore, but the residual on being the No. 1 rookie going into last year and the potential of him having a Ryan J. Braun-like breakthrough make it certain he will be drafted in all leagues. In fact, if you are in a league with a lot of prospect hounds, it might be hard to get Gordon on Draft Day. It was in our analysts leagues. But anyone who will be picked as many as 10 rounds behind Braun has to be considered a potential sleeper, if you consider they are equally intriguing talents long term.

7. Delmon Young, OF, Twins

Since we are calling some of baseball's best young players Fantasy "sleepers," we might as well throw this name in here. Young had a productive rookie year if you look at his numbers, but an awful one when you compare his numbers to what the expectations were -- .300-25-100-100-25. Young is another player in the highly-touted Gordon mold, as in there will be leagues where you won't be able to get him anywhere near a bargain. But if he falls to you into the middle rounds consider yourself fortunate. The change of scenery just might be able to coax .300-30-100-100-30 out of him.

8. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox

Dice-K, like all Red Sox starters, will be highly sought-after on Draft Day. But, now that we know (or at least think we know) what he is -- a 15-game winner with a 4.00-plus ERA -- he will be drafted lower than last year. That is dangerous, because it is a big belief of ours players in their second season in a new home tend to hit their stride. Josh Beckett did a year ago in Boston. Carlos Beltran did his second year with the Mets. And Alex Rodriguez had a better second year in Yankee Stadium. Last spring, some might have drafted him as an 18-game winner with a sub-3.00 ERA. We think those numbers are possible, especially if he doesn't wear down like he did down the stretch in '07: 10-6, 3.84 first half and just 5-6, 5.19 in the second half.

9. Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox

Fields has to beat out Joe Crede (back) this spring, which will keep people from recognizing he hit 23 homers as a rookie. That is a nice park for homers and a solid supporting cast for him. In a full season, .260-30-100-80-15 is possible. You might not see the steals coming after he stole just one a year ago, but Fields stole 28 in his last full Triple-A season. There are many reasons to like Fields, especially since some might see Crede's presence as a threat. We don't. If healthy, Crede is trade bait. The White Sox need to rebuild with affordable guys like Fields.

10. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres

The Kouz was on our top 27-year-olds list, so this qualifies as a breakout double-dipper. Like we said there, his overall numbers among third baseman are average or below for most Fantasy leagues, but check out what he did in the second half and you might be more excited: .317-11-37-34-1 (.366 OBP, .524 SLUG). His second chance after the All-Star break showed dramatic improvement from his first trip around the league: .228-7-37-23-0 (.290-.384). At 27, and with a full year under his belt, should mean he can take even more strides to becoming a reliable Fantasy option for all leagues, and he should come at an affordable price.

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If you are wondering why so-and-so sophomore did not make our top 10, it is because we either felt they will be drafted at fair market value or better (uh, actually worse in our book) or we just don't think much more of them than what we saw last year. Also, it might be they still are considered rookies, like Jacoby Ellsbury and Joba Chamberlain among many others.

The following sortable stats, provided to us by the Elias Sports Bureau, list all of the rookie pitchers and hitters who had their rookie eligibility exhausted in 2007. The ones marked with an * are those that have the best potential to outproduce their Draft Day value.