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2009 Bracketology

Posted on: April 20, 2008 12:36 am
Edited on: April 20, 2008 6:57 pm
 

Part 4 of my five-part series getting you ready for next year in college basketball.

Part 1 - Predicting the Field
Part 2 - Top 25
Part 3 - Wooden Watch
Part 5 - Tournament Playout (still to come)

#1 Seeds: Texas, Connecticut, Purdue, North Carolina
#2 Seeds: Notre Dame, USC, Kansas, Duke
#3 Seeds: Gonzaga, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Florida
#4 Seeds: Memphis, Michigan State, Louisville, Georgetown
#5 Seeds: Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Virginia Tech
#6 Seeds: Syracuse, Davidson, Arizona, UNLV
#7 Seeds: Villanova, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Oklahoma
#8 Seeds: Mississippi State, UCLA, Butler, Xavier
#9 Seeds: Marquette, St. Mary's, Miami (FL), Ohio State
#10 Seeds: Oregon, BYU, Baylor, Texas A&M
#11 Seeds: West Virginia, Nevada, Clemson, Creighton
#12 Seeds: Florida State, New Mexico, San Diego, George Mason
#13 Seeds: Kent State, UTEP, IUPUI, UNC-Asheville
#14 Seeds: Cornell, Pacific, Middle Tennessee, Belmont
#15 Seeds: American, Tennessee-Martin, Siena, Stephen F. Austin
#16 Seeds: Morgan State, Wagner, Weber State, Alabama State, Hartford

Last Four In: UTEP, New Mexico, San Diego, Florida State
First Four Out: Mississippi, UAB, Minnesota, Washington
Next Four Out: Virginia, Stanford, Arkansas, Cleveland State

NIT-Bound: Missouri, Kansas State, Temple, Drake, New Mexico State

Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Mar 2, 2007
Posted on: April 20, 2008 10:38 am

2009 Bracketology

UNLV was an 8-seed last season, they return everybody of note but guard Curtis Terry, they'll have 3 returning SENIOR starters (and 4 of their top 5 leading scorers), AND they add Memphis transfer Tre-Von Willis as well as Rivals 5-star (class of 2007) redshirt freshman center Beas Hamga.

Their one glaring weakness from last season...size...now is a strength with the arrival of the 7'-0" Hamga as well as 6'-10" freshman Brice Massamba.  They return their best player and leading scorer Wink Adams, their best rebounder and defender (Rene Rougeau), and their 2nd leading scorer and best perimeter shooter (Joe Darger).

Despite all of this, you somehow manage to have them getting worse.  Truth is, everybody in Vegas is expecting the best UNLV team since the 1990-91 Final Four team of Johnson, Augmon, Anthony, & Hunt.

This team has 30+ wins, and a deep NCAA Tournament run written all over 'em.

  



Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: April 20, 2008 10:40 am

2009 Bracketology

I agree with you RiverRock



Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Mar 2, 2007
Posted on: April 20, 2008 12:54 pm

2009 Bracketology

You guys who do these "way in advance" top 25's and bracketology's need to start putting far less stock in recruiting classes and incoming freshman, and far MORE stock in who these teams actually have coming back.

An 8-seed who returns 4 seniors, and brings in a 5-star, 7-footer who practiced with the team all last season (as well as a transfer from Memphis who practiced with the Rebels all last season)?  My guess is that that team will probably be a whole lot better.  Think Xavier...an 8-seed in 2007 who returned a bunch of players, and who subsequently became a 3-seed the following season.  That will very likely be UNLV next season.

 



Reputation: 94
Level: All-Star
Since: Nov 7, 2006
Posted on: April 20, 2008 3:13 pm

2009 Bracketology

that's my bad riverrock.  i had new mexico and unlv jumbled.  when i was going through conference by conference, i had unlv, byu and new mexico listed, but not in the right order.  i don't know about a 6+ seed for them, i think the top 25 teams are set strong.  but 7 seed wouldn't be anything to mope about.



Reputation: 90
Level: All-Star
Since: Feb 25, 2008
Posted on: April 20, 2008 3:25 pm

2009 Bracketology

theriverrock definitely has a legit point. UNLV is likely a force next year. Recruiting classes don't usually impact the team immediately. It takes a year or two to make a noticeable difference (this isn't always the case, though).

Of course I am bias saying this, but Baylor as a 10 seed? We return 3 senior starters (Curtis Jerrells, Henry Dugat, and Kevin Rogers). One was 1st team All Big 12, the other two were honorable mention. We return a starting junior in Tweety Carter. We return amazing bench players like LaceDarius Dunn. Not to mention the freshman we red-shirted last year in Fred Ellis. Oh, and we happen to have a 4-star recruit in Anthony Jones. And Ater Majok and Chris Turner have yet to commit anywhere, but Baylor is on both of their lists.

So again, explain why we only go up one seed? Our Big 12 play (and overall for that matter) have done nothing but go up dramatically in years past.

Then again, I am just irked because Baylor is my team. But recruiting classes won't generally impact play as much as your poll says they will.



Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Mar 2, 2007
Posted on: April 20, 2008 3:33 pm

2009 Bracketology

Good research, lilman. 

Believe it or not, I wouldn't be shocked to see UNLV as high as a 3-seed next season.  I personally think they're next season's Xavier.  In 2007-08, they were forced to play an incredibly small front line in which 6'-7" small forward Joe Darger was forced to guard centers all season.  Next season, Darger will move back to the small forward slot, and 7'-0" redshirt freshman Beas Hamga takes over in the middle.

Another bit of inside info...UNLV gets a bit of a head start in that they'll be traveling to Austrailia in June to play a series of exhibitions.  This will be especially helpful to newcomers like Hamga and Memphis transfer Tre'Von Willis, as well as reserves from last year's team who are in need of some court time.

Early in the season, UNLV will have the advantage of having had their newcomers already play in games with the veterans.  This should equal a lot less rust during the non-conference portion of the schedule.  



Reputation: 98
Level: Superstar
Since: Aug 16, 2006
Posted on: April 20, 2008 4:57 pm

2009 Bracketology

It's way too early to take anything like this seriously. I applaud you for putting in the effort and giving us something to look over, but next year's landscape is still too cloudy to predict how the seeds will turn out. I will, however, guarantee you that ASU won't finish above Arizona or UCLA next season, and Stanford is going to be one of the worst teams in the PAC 10. There's no way they make the tournament.

Louisville will be better than that next year. The two big men they have coming in are going to make immediate impacts. I think they're a top 5 team, but like I said, the rosters aren't set and it's too early to get a real feel for what next year will be like.



Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Aug 18, 2006
Posted on: April 22, 2008 9:33 pm

2009 Bracketology

If Joe Alexander comes back and if we can land EBanks then we could be a 3-4 seed.



Reputation: 94
Level: All-Star
Since: Nov 7, 2006
Posted on: April 22, 2008 10:33 pm

2009 Bracketology

yeah but right now, alexander is gone.
i want him back though.  makes for a great, interesting Big East year if he does.



Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Aug 18, 2006
Posted on: April 23, 2008 5:23 pm

2009 Bracketology

It will be more likely he comes back because he declared but didn't sign an agent. He said he is just testing the NBA to see where he would land and since he is smart he will realize that staying for his senior year under Huggins is the right choice. Come back Alexander!



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