southbeach3

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

They probably will get 80 wins, it'll just take em a while, and it wontt be so easy. Everything else was fine.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

I like what your saying. 100% true

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

Without Gallardo, the Brewers stand no chance at beating the Cubs for the division.

I see where you're getting at, but I'm not really sure what Ned Yost can do to make his guys play better. I mean, is it really Yost's fault that the Brewers are 13th in the National League in pitching? Is it really his fault that the entire infield is struggling just to keep a batting average above .200? Is it really his fault that Ryan Braun has started out this slow, Sheets has spent time on the DL, and Gallardo is gone for the season?....I don't really think you can pinpoint the majority of the blame on Ned Yost.

When things are going bad, people start looking for someone to blame, even if it really doesn't make sense. Yost has played the cards he's dealt and the dealer is Melvin. Melvin has made things difficult for the Brewers by not adding pitching depth and signing washed up closers for 10 million, but I can hardly see the Brewers firing him after the "talent" he's brought up to the big leagues. The only way Yost gets fired is if Melvin uses him as an excuse for something he can't help.

The problem with the Brewers is that they need to add a RELIABLE starter in the middle of their rotation. Sheets is always just one injury away from ruining the Brewers season and the rest of the pitchers (minus the injured Gallardo) are streaky. A player like Joe Blanton would work wonders for the Brew Crew, but the farm is so depleted right now, a deal would probably never get done.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

Jason Kendall - the Brewers pitching is terrible, how is Kendall's work a revelation?

Prince's contract - do you know how these things work? I'm guessing you don't by your comment. It's doubtful the Brewers could have doen anything with Prince's contract at this time.  Scott Boras typically does not allow his players to be bought out.

Rickie Weeks - to call him a bust at his age is a bit premature, why give up on a guy who is only 26 years old and has all the physical tools to succeed?  As usual, the backup quarterback or the next big thing in the minors is always everyone's favorite.  Remember how great Ron Belliard was going to be?

JJ Hardy - I'll give you a little on this one, but if Hardy doesn't hit in front of the pitcher who will?  You think Hall, Weeks or Cameron have the discipline to bat in front of the pitcher? I don't.

Bill Hall - terrible plate discipline, never hit for a high average but there is value in a player that can move from the infield to the outfield and back to the infield again.  You need one of these versatile guys on the roster.  Sure I wish he was better at the plate but his defensive flexibility shouldn't be overlooked.

Cory Hart - is in fact a beast, while I wouldn't be opposed to having him leadoff there is value having him part of the three headed monster with Braun and Fielder.

Mike Cameron -   He's a .240 career hitter.  Unless you're just disregarding his career stats and going to use his one week with the Brewers to base your opinion. He has power, he has speed, great glove, takes some walks, has a low batting average and strikes out a ton.  Let's see how this Cameron thing works out, I like the signing but it's too early to tell.

Ryan Braun - incredible rookie season, but let's not let him off the hook here.  He is falling well short of expectations to this point, why does he get a free pass? He needs to pick things up.

Starting Pitching - not very good.  Gallardo is done, Sheets is a pitch away from the 15 day DL, Suppan is Suppan, he's a 4.50 era pitcher who can eat innings, he's no more than a #3 starter on just about any team.  Parra and Villanueva do not appear ready to take the ball every 5 days.  They are a bullpen drain and for a weak bullpen that spells disaster.

Relief Pitching - Not good.  Gagne was a one year deal for 10 million, I'd still rather do that deal then pay Cordero 47 million over 4 years.  If the Brewers didn't take the chance on Gagne who would have closed for this team?  The free agent market for closers was terrible, they took a chance on a guy with no long term commitment.  He still has time to turn it around.  I agree that the rest of the bullpen is pretty average, which when they have to come into games in the 6th inning it makes them even worse.

Ned Yost - after you point out how bad Weeks, Hall the starting pitching and the bullpen is you proceed to call for Yost's head.  How is that? When a team has this many weaknesses what do you expect?  This team is not that talented nor are they underachieving so much that they need to overhaul the front office.  Why does every Brewer fan ignore the lack of pitching on this team and keep talking about the talent the team has.  There's more to a baseball team than being able to hit home runs.  The bullpen needs to be better, the starting pitching needs to be better, and the offense needs some consistency, until that happens it doesn't matter who the manager is. When the starters only go 5 innings you can't help but overuse a bullpen, and when you have to use an average bullpen too often it gets even worse. 

The bottom line is that this team isn't nearly as talented as many would like to believe. They are probably about a .500 team, not because they're underachieving, but because that's where their talent level will put them. 

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

Excellent analysis SBeach - most of which I agree with.  However, I disagree with your bottom line conclusion that the Brewers are underachievers  Your thread title and analysis I think comes to the correct conclusion that Milw is avaerage at best and achieving right about where they should based on their talent, field mangement and front office management.

I think there is definitely young core talent e.g. Fielder, Braun, Sheets (when haealthy), Gallardo, but they have filled in the roster with a bunch of good (Hart) to fair (Kendall, Hall, Weeks, Suppan) to poor (Turnbow, Capuano, Bush) players who cannot consistently get the job done.  Until they get upgrades at multiple positions, I think they will continue to finish middle of the pack.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

I totally agree with most of the things you said.

There are a few things that Melvin has done right and a few "no-calls", so to speak. Turnbow is obviously a bust, however the year he emerged as a closer (06) he was lights out all day. Most likely due to the fact that few hitters had seen his stuff. After he got lit up a few times in 07 he got shook and instead of taking it in stride and becoming a ML Pitcher, he ground himself into the dirt trying to blow it by everyone all the time. So he's a bona fide head case, and that's something that's always hard to spot. Still, its sad that a guy with that much arm talent is still trying to K everyone instead of keeping the ball down and getting outs. Shouse's success as a specialty pitcher is all due to his ability to keep the ball down and baffle hitters with changing speeds. Everyone in the majors can hit a 94mph fastball, especially if its belt high right down the pipe. That pitch should have been removed from Turnbow's "arsenal" after his first year. Shame on Mike Maddux for not developing some fastball movement and a changeup with that kid.

I think its awful when a young team that plays SO WELL together is constantly beaten down by poor decision making and poor management decisions. Yost should have learned from Bobby Cox that you DONT FSCK WITH THE LINEUP WHEN YOUR TEAM IS WINNING.

Yost, by himself, cost the team the division last year with his piss-poor pitching moves. Amazing that he, once a catcher, doesn't realize he should leave a guy in when he's getting outs, and take a guy out if he's throwing meatballs right away. Pitching is a fickle, streaky thing. Some days you got it, some days you need a neck brace. You absolutely CANT rely on any kind of science to determine what pitcher is going to get outs. Its all about feel. Yost has no feel for the flow of the game and IMO is the worst manager the Crew has had since Rene Lachemann. He should be sent down to the minors with Turnbow.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

Rickie Weeks - to call him a bust at his age is a bit premature, why give up on a guy who is only 26 years old and has all the physical tools to succeed?  As usual, the backup quarterback or the next big thing in the minors is always everyone's favorite.  Remember how great Ron Belliard was going to be?

You just made my point. I do remember how great Belliard was going to be......Weeks is Belliard. Belliard had all the tools, and did nothing for the Crew. Sounds like they are the same player to me. By the way, how long do you think they should wait on Weeks? Another month? Three months? A Year? Two years? Eventually, if this turd doesn't produce, something is going to get done. Save for a month or so at the end of last year, Weeks has done nothing. Did you ever stop and ask yourself if he was just hot for a month, and right now he is almost at his ceiling? If they want to win now, the move is to sit him down, and give someone another chance. You cannot continue with that kind of production from him.

Prince's contract - do you know how these things work? I'm guessing you don't by your comment. It's doubtful the Brewers could have doen anything with Prince's contract at this time.  Scott Boras typically does not allow his players to be bought out.

By your comment. I am guessing that it is you who doesn't understand how it works. The Brewers had the option of renewing his contract at the current salary, 400000 something, or they could have renewed it at a higher salary, 900000 or so like the Phillies did with Howard. Prince is pissed because they chose to renew at the 400000 figure instead of putting him on par with Howard. It is NOT buying him out! The Brewers control him, and no matter what would still control him through his arbitration years.  Boras had nothing to with it, either way. If you don't think that Fielder isn't going to remember that when it comes time for him to cash in, you are nuts.

Mike Cameron -   He's a .240 career hitter.

No he's not......try .250.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

Ron Belliard never had half the tools of Rickie Weeks, not even close.  I'm not saying Rickie Weeks performance is good, it's not, it's not even acceptable.  You called him a bust which at the age of 26 the skills to hit 20 HR's and steal 20 bases you're jumping the gun. Am I getting sick of Rickie's performance? Sure, but I'm not ready to call him a bust. He's 26,  Since when did 26 years old become the do or die age for a baseball player? 

As for the Fielder contract - I thought you were suggesting the Brewers were at fault for not signing him to a long term contract. In that case Boras would have everything to do with it as he typicaly does not allow teams to buy out arbitratrion years.  In either case Prince is going to cash in whether he makes 10 grand this year or 900,000.  Don't act like the Brewers were going to get some kind of hometeam discount and that this contract ruined that possibility.   

As for Mike Cameron, you got me, shame on me to diss his .250 average by saying it was .240.  That one more hit in 100 at bats makes all the difference.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

He's 26,  Since when did 26 years old become the do or die age for a baseball player?

Most players actually show IMPROVEMENT by the time they are 26. Weeks has regressed to the point where 20 hr's and 20 sb's are only possible if they come along with a .210 average. I don't care about the tools. A lot of minor leaguers come up with tools and don't amount to anything.

In either case Prince is going to cash in whether he makes 10 grand this year or 900,000.  Don't act like the Brewers were going to get some kind of hometeam discount and that this contract ruined that possibility.

Show me where I actually said that Prince would sign for a discount. I never said that, escpecially with that leech Boras as his agent. The point I was making was that the Brewers offended him, and I agree. He should be paid right around what Ryan Howard makes. Similar players, similar skill set. Look at the relationship he has with his dad and tell me that he doesn't hold a grudge. When it comes to contract time, and the Brewers offer something similar to what someone else is offering, is the renewal going to come into play? My guess is it might. Why not make the face of your franchise happy for what......$500000? They could afford it. That is the same nickel and dime crap they pulled with Cordero. Look at what the Brewers offered, and look what Cordero signed for. Now they are stuck with Gagne.

As for Mike Cameron, you got me, shame on me to diss his .250 average by saying it was .240.  That one more hit in 100 at bats makes all the difference.

My opinion on Cameron is that the average is bad, but the 20-25 homers he gives you, along with a glove in center the Brewers haven't had in years, is well worth it.

The Brewers look no better than an 80 win team.

So if you're 26 years old and haven't improved at the expected pace you're not going to?  I'm not saying you can't hate Rickie Weeks, I'm saying that 26 years old is too early to call a guy a bust.  Of course I want him to improve, who wouldn't?  The difference here is that you've called him a bust and given up on a 26 year old player that has the ability to hit 25 hr's and steal 25 bases, I not ready to call him a bust yet, nor am I ready to give up on him. 

The Brewers offered Cordero a 4 year 42 million dollar contract, he signed with the Reds for 4 years at 46 million.  I'd hardly call that nickel and diming.  Besides, I'd much rather experiment with Gagne for one year at 10 million then be stuck with Cordero for 4 years at 47 million.  You sign Cordero for that kind of money and one of the position players doesn't get signed in the next few years...Cordero wasn't worth that kind of money, he benefited from the lack of options.  He was the best closer available this past offseason, that doesn't mean he's worth what he got. Paying Cordero 47 million over the next four years would have been absolutely stupid.

Did Prince win ROY and an MVP?  Why should he get what Ryan Howard got?  Maybe the renewal comes into play maybe it doesn't, I just think you're making a big deal about nothing.  When it comes to contract time the only thing that's going to matter is who is offering what at that moment.  No one's getting a discount and he's not going to play for someone for less because of what happened a few years ago.  If the Brewers meet his number, he'll be a Brewer, if not, he'll play somewhere else.

I never said Cameron wasn't worth it, I said I liked the signing...he has power, he has speed, he has a great glove and his OBP is good, but he doesn't hit for a high average and he strikes out too much.  I repeat, I like the signing he's just got some flaws which I'm willing to live with.