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I know, I know. I just assumed Pope Benedict XVI was going to include Detroit on his United States itinerary, too. At the very least, if I'm the Tigers, I offer Dontrelle Willis to the Yankees in exchange for the Pope saying Mass in Comerica Park instead of Yankee Stadium. And the Tigers, now winners of two in a row, are authors of only one of baseball's most fascinating early-season trends. ...
David Ortiz starts 5-for-52: Time was, the mere thought of Big Papi sitting out a game against the New York Yankees would have been more ridiculous than the notion of Ted Williams' head frozen in Arizona. But there he was -- Ortiz, not Teddy Ballgame -- frozen in the Boston dugout Sunday night, the latest installment of the Red Sox-Yankees going on without him.
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| Big Papi received a day off for his early-season swoon. (Getty Images) |
To Boston skipper Terry Francona, it had become obvious that Ortiz needed a mental break. Papi, who takes a far more cerebral approach than he's ever given credit for -- this is not a guy who simply steps in and slugs away -- agreed.
One opposing pitcher who is very familiar with Ortiz said he hasn't seen anything drastically different so far this year. Ortiz has swung at a few first pitches, but they've been fastballs down the pipe. Ortiz remains very disciplined and hasn't been lured to swing at offerings out of the strike zone. Our pitcher, who requested anonymity, does add that he's seen umpires call some borderline pitches strikes that in the past have gone in Ortiz's favor.
Verdict: Ortiz starts hitting again, just as sure as they cue up Neil Diamond's Sweet Caroline again and again over the Fenway Park sound system. As noticeable as Big Papi's early season funk is, things also get magnified at this time of year. Remember Derek Jeter going 0-for-32 in April, 2004? Jeter was hitting .189 into May then and still finished at .292. Ortiz flared two opposite-field singles Monday in Cleveland then poked another single to right on Tuesday. Sometimes the little knocks are all it takes to get a big guy going.
Prince Fielder, 0 homers after slamming 50 last year: This might be the worst season-opening scenario for both Fielder and People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. The big hunk of man goes vegetarian over the winter and comes back with less muscle?
Let's just say that Fielder was conscious enough of the homers/diet relationship that after he hit his first homer this spring -- and that took awhile -- he was teasing teammates in the dugout: "See boys, I can still hit 'em even without meat." Then, when both Fielder and 2007 Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun started slowly, the Dynamic Duo visited Brewers manager Ned Yost before Sunday's game and requested to be flip-flopped in the lineup.
Yost complied, moving Fielder to fourth and Braun to third. Fielder doesn't have a homer in 55 plate appearances, he's hitting only .222 (compared with .288 last year) and is slugging only .289 (.618 last year).
Verdict: Even if he has switched to Boca Burgers, Fielder's power isn't gone -- but don't look for 50 again this season after this start. And give the guy a break: At 23, Fielder last summer became the youngest player ever to hit 50 or more in a season. With Braun aboard for a full season, pitchers are going to tread very lightly through the heart of this order. The Cardinals walked him four times Tuesday night.
Fielder's 50 last year came in 702 plate appearances, an average of one homer every 14.04 times he stepped in the batter's box. Even if he starts thumping them at that pace again tomorrow, assuming another 702 plate appearances this season, he'll need to start hitting one homer every 12.94 plate appearances the rest of the way.
The Tigers aren't even the team of 2008, let alone Team of Century: Memo to Pope Benedict XVI: Are you sure you can't at least have the pilot fly the Air Pope plane over Detroit and sprinkle Holy Water over the ballpark on your way back to Rome?
Verdict: The most incredible statistic in a young season full of them might be this: That this fearsome Tigers lineup already has been shut out four times after suffering shutouts only three times all of last season. Now, after taking a moment to let that settle in, forget it.
These guys will hit. They won't be able to avoid it. Not this lineup. No, what's a concern for the Tigers is pitching. Key setup man Fernando Rodney, who was supposed to be back by now, instead will visit Dr. James Andrews in Alabama on Wednesday for a nagging shoulder problem that won't go away. Joel Zumaya won't return until after the All-Star break.
And the rotation through Tuesday ranked last in the AL with a 6.31 ERA, far behind 13th place Baltimore's 4.95. In the majors, only Florida's rotation (7.17) had a higher ERA than Detroit's. Also, Detroit starting pitchers had worked an AL-low 67 innings. If that continues, it's going to completely blow out an already undermanned pen.
Andruw Jones hitting .114: That's not even the worst part. Forget hitting 'em hard but right at people. Jones, the Dodgers' $18 million man, has been so abysmal that manager Joe Torre dropped him to seventh in the batting order beginning last Friday. He's overweight at 240 or so pounds. And Dodgers fans are booing him the way they snarl at freeway gridlock. Aye-yi-yi.
"He was God-awful against San Diego (the past two weekends)," one veteran NL scout says. "He was pulling off on everything. They threw him breaking ball after breaking ball and he made no adjustments at all."
Verdict: Truth be told, Jones shouldn't even be hitting .114. His "triple" against Pittsburgh on Monday night should have been an out, but for Pirates right fielder Xavier Nady taking a poor route to the ball and failing to make the play.
We don't have a large enough sample size this season to make serious judgments. But take what we've seen so far from Jones and place it next to his 2007, when he hit .222 with career-worsts in both on-base percentage (.311) and slugging percentage (.413) for Atlanta, and Jones, even at 31, is on an alarming luge run south. He stopped adjusting to pitchers last summer, which is what frustrated the Braves to no end. Throw him a breaking ball away, and Jones has little chance anymore.
Padres bullpen has highest ERA in NL: That the Padres 'pen's 5.70 ERA was the worst in the league was hair-raising enough, given Petco Park's pitching-friendly demeanor and general manager Kevin Towers' history of brilliance at building a 'pen.
But given that this largely was the same group that started last season with a major-league record 29 scoreless innings (since 1900, the previous best was the 22 scoreless innings pitched by the 1955 White Sox bullpen), the early failures this season really stand out.
Not only did San Diego's 'pen have the NL's worst ERA entering Tuesday night's games, the group was 1-5 and had blown two save opportunities. And closer Trevor Hoffman was freaking out the entire city with a one blown save, an 0-2 record and a 9.53 ERA after blowing two saves in last season's final three days to help knock the Padres out of the playoffs.
Verdict: Let's just say manager Bud Black is nowhere close to panicking.
"Once these guys as a group start getting in the flow, we'll start seeing them make pitches," Black says. "The one thing that's hurt us is the walk. And these guys, to a man, have a track record of not walking guys."
As for Hoffman, before running him out of town, San Diegans should remember this: True, he finished ugly last summer, but baseball's all-time saves leader (528) did convert 42 of 49 save opportunities a year ago -- mostly while pitching with a sore elbow he kept under wraps. The elbow actually is much better this season after he had some bone chips removed last fall.
"More than anything, because of what happened at the end of last year, there's going to be some focus on Trev's first number of save opportunities this year," Black says. "A couple of saves have gotten away from him, and things have been overmagnified and overblown.
"What I saw in spring training, his stuff, his velocity and his hand speed were the same as last year, if not better."
The front-runners: On Tuesday morning, these were your six first-place teams: Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, Florida, St. Louis and Arizona. Let's see, Arizona, yes and five you've-got-to-be-kidding-mes.
Verdict: Arizona stays. Justin Upton, only 20, already is growing more quickly than the weeds in your garden. He was tied for the NL lead with five homers (along with teammate Mark Reynolds, Milwaukee's Billy Hall and Florida's Mike Jacobs) and tied for fifth with 12 RBI (along with Atlanta's Jeff Francoeur). These Diamondbacks are hitting, and striking early: Through midweek, they had outscored their opponents 17-5 in the first inning. And after their opponents outscored them in 2007's quirkiest stat, Arizona was a major-league best plus-31 in run margin through midweek, outscoring its opponents 81-50.
The other five? St. Louis is intriguing. Kyle Lohse has been a great addition, and if the Cardinals pitching can just keep them afloat until Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter return later this year in a division with no flawless team, look out. Oakland was supposedly rebuilding, but Los Angeles' pitching is beat up and Seattle put Erik Bedard on the disabled list this week. On paper, the Athletics should be outmanned. But if we've learned anything from Oakland over the last eight or nine years, it's never to underestimate GM Billy Beane's magic wand.
Kansas City is on the right track, and Zack Greinke (0.75) and Brian Bannister (0.86) rank two-three in AL ERA, but realistically, the Royals should be a year or two away from seriously challenging. That Florida leads the NL East even 13 games in with a pitching staff that ranks last in the NL with a 5.47 ERA should embarrass everybody else in the division. And Baltimore? Nice opening, but don't take Brian Roberts off the trading block just yet.