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As promised a couple of weeks ago, it's time to name the teams I consider to be "locks" as at-large teams for the NCAA tournament.
I have refrained from looking at mock brackets and based these choices more on qualitative than quantitative analysis. I've basically watched these teams play multiple times and looked at their records. That's it. It's my own common-sense approach to March Madness.
My feeling is, with the exception of perhaps 5-10 teams, the at-large teams have already clearly identified themselves. And for those teams on the stoop, their work and that of the selection committee will determine their fate.
It appears that it will be fairly challenging for the committee to separate the last group of at-large teams; quite a few look very much alike. However, in my estimation the greatest challenge for the committee will be seeding the field due to the paper-thin difference between a lot of teams.
So here are the current "locks" for at-large bids as I see them after Wednesday night. I've chosen to list the first 16 teams in groups of four alphabetically, very loosely projecting their seed lines. A bracketologist I am not! The remaining teams are listed alphabetically as well.
#1 seeds
Memphis, North Carolina, Tennessee, UCLA
#2 seeds
Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Texas
#3 seeds
Connecticut, Louisville, Wisconsin, Xavier
#4 seeds
Butler, Marquette, Purdue, Stanford
My remaining at-large teams: BYU, Clemson, Gonzaga, Indiana, Miami, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, St. Mary's, Vanderbilt, Washington State.
That's only 29 teams and I need 34. So I need 5 more teams, right? Not so fast my friend! (I love Lee Corso). Because some of the aforementioned teams are very likely to win their respective conference tournaments and the accompanying automatic bid, I could need as many as 14 more at-large teams. The obvious five, plus another nine if the big six conferences, A-10, Conference USA and Mountain West have tournament winners on my at-large list.
While teams on the stoop would love for that to be the case, according to my model and assumptions, the likelihood is that there are 10 at-large spots available today with 15 teams worthy of the strongest consideration.
These teams are listed alphabetically: Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Dayton, Kansas State, Kent State, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio State, St. Joseph's, Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia.
Keep in mind this is a fluid situation. Leading up to the unveiling of the brackets Sunday, I will be talking about this stuff all weekend with Seth Davis, our outstanding research staff and to a lesser degree, Greg Gumbel.
And like the committee, we will have vigorous debates about certain teams. We'll agree, disagree and agree to disagree with each other. And I'm sure I'll change my mind on a couple of teams in the process. But that's what we do this time of year.
As a studio analyst my focus isn't on trying to guess the selection and seeding of the teams correctly, it's to help viewers understand the process a little bit and to add to their enjoyment of the tournament in some small way. So with that in mind, here's a little tournament appetizer for you.
Watch List
Clemson: An experienced backcourt, a solid frontline, capable 3-point shooters, and a pressing, attacking style of play make the Tigers a team that could surprise. Seniors Cliff Hammonds and James Mays are the hungry leaders for this team, and six players average between 9-14 points per game.
Davidson: The Wildcats will be a popular low-profile pick, and for good reason. Pesky on defense, crisp and efficient on offense, good in transition, a terrific shooter and scorer in Stephen Curry, an excellent point guard in Jason Richards, solid front-court players in Sander, Lovelace and Meno and good depth and experience. A challenging pre-conference schedule has Davidson poised for a tournament win.
Oral Roberts: Good inside/outside scoring balance, solid defensively and on the glass. The Golden Eagles are deep and athletic and have high-level shot makers in Robert Jarvis and Moses Ehambe. Jarvis is one of the more energetic and exciting players you'll see in the tournament. He's a game changer.
Edwin Ubiles/Siena: This sophomore is a smooth operator. Long and lean, this young fella is a scoring machine. He has a nice stroke out to 3-point range and can get it done off the dribble, too. He averages 17 points per game on 53 percent field goal shooting and 44 percent from the 3-point line.
Shan Foster/Vandy: The all time leading scorer at Vanderbilt has had a fantastic season. He might be the premiere long-range catch-and-shoot player in the country. He has also become a little better with his mid-range game this season. He's the kind of leader, clutch shooter and scorer that could carry his team on a nice tournament run.