My simulations show the Penguins winning Game 7 against the Senators on Thursday about 70 percent of the time, suggesting they are worth the wager at the thick price. The home team is 97-69 (58 percent) in such scenarios in NHL history. The home team has won four of the last five in this series, and the Penguins are 24-8 in their last 32 home games against winning teams.

Game 5 in Pittsburgh generated seven goals, and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair in Game 7 in Pittsburgh. I'm projecting 5.4 goals and, even though the Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight Sens-Pens meetings, recommending the Over.