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The passing numbers for Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm went up in 2007.
Somehow, surprisingly, his draft stock went the other way.
At this time a year ago, Brohm made a decision to stay in school instead of entering the 2007 NFL Draft, which most thought to be the right decision, especially since he was considered the No. 1 overall prospect for the 2008 draft at the time.
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| It's more than just the number that makes Prisco think of Jim Kelly when he sees Brian Brohm. (Getty Images) |
How did that happen?
"Over-analysis," one NFC scout said. "That's what we do. Give scouts 12 months and they'll tear everybody apart."
They're wrong about Brohm. He's the best quarterback in this draft, better than Boston College's Matt Ryan, who will be the first quarterback taken.
He's also the headliner of my annual "Better-Than" Team, made up of players I think are better than most of the scouts do.
Brohm had 30 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, while Ryan threw 31 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions. Brohm also had a better completion percentage than Ryan. Yet as the draft nears, it's Ryan who will be a top-10 overall pick. Brohm has to hope somebody at the back end of the first round likes him enough to take him there. If not, it's the second round at best for him.
He's Exhibit A in what over-scouting can do to a player.
My Better-Than team isn't about over-analysis. It's about football players. Can you block? Can you tackle? Do you produce yards when the ball is in your hands?
In recent years, the team has featured a list of 20 players. This year's team is expanded to 25 because there are so many players I like more than the scouts do.
Some I will hit. Some I will miss. It's not unlike the scouts themselves. They miss as well. It's just that when they do it, it costs a heck of a lot more than when I do.
