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Forget the 2007 draft. I'm here to look at what happened a year ago when coaches and general managers said all the same things they're saying now ... only now we have one season to evaluate the results.
So how did they do? The envelopes, please:
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| Reggie Bush ran wild more and more as his rookie season went on. (Getty Images) |
The Texans could've had Reggie Bush. They could've had Vince Young, too. Instead, they chose Williams because, owner Bob McNair said, they wanted a top defensive player to combat Peyton Manning. Well, they got one ... only his name was DeMeco Ryans, the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year. Williams made more money, more news and fewer plays than Ryans. A lot fewer. To make matters worse, the Texans had to shop for a running back and quarterback after the season ended. When you have the first pick of the draft, you take the best player in the draft. Houston didn't, and now it's paying for the mistake.
2. New Orleans: Reggie Bush, RB, USC
Thank you, Houston. The Saints never figured on having a crack at Bush because they never figured Houston would pass on the guy. When the Texans did it took New Orleans two seconds to make a decision. Sure, the Saints had a solid back in Deuce McAllister, but they understood what Houston did not: You start at the top of the draft board and work your way down. Bush finished with 1,307 combined yards, including 742 on a team-high 88 receptions, and helped the Saints through an improbable playoff run. Houston served this one up, but credit the Saints for knocking it out of the park.
3. Tennessee: Vince Young, QB, Texas
This was supposed to be a coin toss between Matt Leinart and Young, but Leinart dropped out of the picture shortly before the draft. It was Young all the way, and it was Young because the Titans saw in him the leader that Steve McNair was for so many years. They might be right. All Young did was carry this team, winning eight of his last 12 starts to push the Titans within walking distance of the playoffs. So his passer rating was 66.7, and he completed 51.5 percent of his passes. Big deal. This game isn't about numbers; it's about winning. And Young was 8-6. He also was the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year. Credit Houston with another assist.
4. N.Y. Jets: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T, Virginia
If Leinart was going to slip past Tennessee, it seemed to make sense for the Jets to pursue him. One, because there was no certainty Chad Pennington would play again, and, two, because Leinart was the quarterback most ready to step in and make an impact. Instead, New York started retooling an offensive line damaged by age and defections, and it started with the best offensive tackle in the draft. Ferguson struggled some throughout the season, but he started all 16 games and showed promise. Plus, Pennington not only played, he led the club to the playoffs. I don't know that Leinart might not have been a wiser choice; what I do know is that the Jets have themselves a franchise left tackle for years.
5. Green Bay: A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State
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Coach Mike McCarthy called Hawk's rookie season "exceptional," and it's hard to argue with the results. He started every game, led the team in tackles and produced more solo stops than all but two players in the NFL. He also rarely left the field, with Hawk playing 95.3 percent of the snaps. That tells you he's valuable. No, it tells you he's invaluable. It also tells you this was a smart choice.
6. San Francisco: Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
If you draft a franchise quarterback you make sure he has receivers. San Francisco used the first pick in 2005 on quarterback Alex Smith, then tried helping him one year later by choosing Davis -- an exceptional tight end who could be the next Brent Jones. Davis can do everything. What he couldn't do in 2006 was stay healthy. He missed six games with a leg injury and didn't make much of an impact. But did you see that nifty 52-yard catch-and-run against Green Bay? That was a glimpse of what might be.
7. Oakland: Michael Huff, S, Texas
The story is that owner Al Davis wanted Leinart and coach Art Shell wanted Huff and that Shell won out. Sure. Since when did Al Davis hold a minority vote in Oakland? The Raiders should have taken Leinart because they would have solved a need at the game's most important position. Of course, with last year's offensive line and offensive staff he would've been sliced, diced and spliced anyway. If you're going to pass on Leinart, I can live with Huff. He started every game, finished fourth on the club in tackles and was a solid special-teams participant. The Raiders stunk on offense last season, but they weren't all that bad on defense. Having Huff made a difference.
8. Buffalo: Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State
The draft's first "reach," with Whitner going five, maybe 10 spots higher than anticipated. But you have to understand the logic here: The Bills wanted a playmaking safety who could step in tomorrow, and there were only two left in the first round: Whitner and Jason Allen. So the Bills gambled, and the move paid off. Big. Despite missing a game, Whitner finished second on the team in tackles and became an anchor in a secondary that will miss Nate Clements. "He's going to work out well for us," coach Dick Jauron said of Whitner.
9. Detroit: Ernie Sims, LB, Florida State
In 2005 the Lions wanted DeMarcus Ware at the 10th position but wound up with wide receiver Mike Williams instead. Why? Because they panicked. They weren't sure about the future of Charles Rogers and felt they needed a replacement if he didn't come around. Bad move, guys. Sims was the Lions' mulligan, with NFL coaches and general managers raving about him after the February scouting combine. In essence, he was DeMarcus Ware one year later, and he lived up to expectations with a team-high 124 tackles. I know it's easy to knock the Lions for stupid draft picks, but they aced this exam.
10. Arizona: Matt Leinart, QB, USC
Had Leinart declared himself eligible for the 2005 draft it would have been he, not Alex Smith, who was the No. 1 pick. Instead, he waited a year and what happened? He somehow slid this far, stopping only because Arizona blew it in 2004 by not drafting Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger when it had the chance. Talk about lucky. Leinart is good. Real good. And he could be great now that Ken Whisenhunt is in charge. Leinart started 11 of the last 12 games, winning four. But give the guy a break. He was a rookie, and he was a rookie in Arizona where the last decent quarterback was Jake Plummer ... when he played for ASU.
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| The Lions didn't draft a WR and look what happened -- Ernie Sims, a great pick. (Getty Images) |
Originally, this was the St. Louis Rams' pick. But they surrendered it after Denver got the hots for Cutler, a quarterback the Broncos rated the best in the draft. Cutler was hired because coach Mike Shanahan lost confidence in Plummer, and it wasn't long -- the 12th game to be exact -- before he yielded to the rookie. Cutler played to mixed reviews over five starts, but what do you expect from a rookie QB? He showed enough -- particularly in the third quarter against San Diego -- to convince Broncos fans that Shanahan might, just might, have found a suitable successor to John Elway. All I know is that Cutler has the ability, the opportunity and the head coach to make it big.
12. Baltimore: Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
The Ravens were so eager to acquire Ngata they traded with Cleveland just to move up one spot. "It eliminated the risk of anybody else moving up," said general manager Ozzie Newsome. It also indicated how much they coveted the guy, especially after the defection of Maake Kemoeatu to Carolina. Ngata started every game, producing 51 tackles, a sack and an interception, and was a key element to the Ravens' second-ranked rush defense. There are few clubs that understand the draft as well as Baltimore, and Ngata becomes the latest chapter in a long list of first-round scores.
13. Cleveland: Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida State
It didn't take a genius to figure out that Cleveland needed a pass rusher. The Browns had an NFL-low 23 sacks the season before and were determined to call a plumber to fix the leak. Well, they found a good one. Wimbley led the club in sacks (11), tackles for losses (eight), pressures (17) and fumble recoveries (three) despite missing one start. Oh, yeah, he also finished fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. Score one for Phil Savage.
14. Philadelphia: Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
When the Eagles look for help, they start with the offensive and defensive lines and see what's there. Bunkley was a natural for a team that suffered defensive lapses the year before and was about to dump defensive tackle Hollis Thomas. A playmaker at Florida State, Bunkley seemed to suffer from a training-camp holdout -- playing little with the Eagles and producing less. He also missed the team's charter flight to Indianapolis, causing an annoyed Andy Reid to deactivate him. I know it takes time for Eagles rookies to make an impact, but the club expects more, a lot more, from Buckley this season. Otherwise, he goes from a disappointment to bust.
15. St. Louis: Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
The Rams loved Hill's speed, and it was that -- coupled with their belief that he could evolve into a first-rate starter -- that made them choose him here. Hill started at both cornerback positions, tied for the team lead in interceptions and was second in special-teams tackles. Yeah, I'd say it worked out.
16. Miami: Jason Allen, S, Tennessee
When I look for info on the Dolphins I trust my friend, Marc Merry, and he tells me Allen was a washout as a safety. Maybe that's why the Dolphins are trying him at cornerback. They say he's more instinctive there. Plus, he played the position in college. But he wasn't drafted as a corner; he was drafted because he was one of two safeties who seemed ready to step in and start. Only Allen didn't. He didn't take snaps with the defense until November because he had trouble absorbing the defense: and that's not exactly a good sign for the 16th pick. No wonder Nick Saban left town.
17. Minnesota: Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
Give the Vikings an incomplete. Greenway was hurt in training camp and missed the season.
18. Dallas: Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State
Until strong-side linebacker Greg Ellis was hurt midway through the season, Carpenter languished. The Cowboys tried him inside. They tried him outside. But they didn't play him much ... until Ellis bowed out. Then you started to see what Carpenter could do, particularly in a Dec. 16 win over Atlanta when he had 1½ sacks. Over the last month, Carpenter seemed at ease and produced. "In that last month," said one scout, "you started noticing him. If he can build on that he'll be OK."
19. San Diego: Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State
Cromartie was one of the most talented players in the draft, but he was also one of the rustiest. A serious knee injury shelved him for the entire 2005 season, which meant the Chargers were taking a risk. Could he play? And, if so, how well? Cromartie served as a nickel back, shared time with starting cornerback Drayton Florence and performed sufficiently well that there's a chance -- and a good one at that -- he winds up starting this year. Just a hunch, but this becomes another direct hit for A.J. Smith.
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| Laurence Maroney was the 21st pick, but now he's No. 1 in New England. (Getty Images) |
Look at Kansas City's draft last season: There were bull's-eyes everywhere, with this one at the top of the list. Hali was the first Chiefs rookie to start every game since Art Still and Sylvester Hicks in 1978, and that's good. This is better: Hali led the team in sacks with eight and won the club's Mack Lee Hill Award, given annually to the top rookie. Everything about this guy worked, including the six forced fumbles. I don't want to hear how the Chiefs blew it with Ryan Sims; they got it right with Hali.
21. New England: Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota
I'll tell you how good this pick was: After taking Cutler, Denver's Shanahan still was trying to maneuver to acquire Maroney. He loved the guy, saying he would've been his choice if the Broncos hadn't zeroed in on Cutler. Now we know why. Maroney showed so much in his first season the Pats let Corey Dillon walk. Not only did Maroney score six times; he had a nifty 4.3 yards-per-carry average and was second in the league with a 28-yard average on kickoff returns. Now, he's the No. 1 back.
22. San Francisco: Manny Lawson, DE/OLB, N.C. State
Lawson was hired to pressure the pocket, but he wound up with 2½ sacks. No problem. Fire the defensive coordinator and hire former San Diego assistant Greg Manusky. If Manusky can get out of Lawson what he did Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips and Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey -- you get the point. Lawson's pass-rush skills, which are considerable, should be maximized with Manusky on board. Lawson played OK last year, but OK is not what the 49ers expect from him. Look for him to make a jump this season.
23. Tampa Bay: Davin Joseph, G, Oklahoma
After overcoming a knee injury that sidelined him the first three games, Joseph started 12 of the next 13 at right guard. He was good, not great, but that doesn't mean the Bucs aren't happy with Joseph. In fact, they were so encouraged by his play the second half of the season they believe Joseph starts for years.
24. Cincinnati: Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
He started nine times, yet still led the team in passes broken up and had more tackles than anyone in the secondary outside of safety Madieu Williams. One reason the Bengals let Tory James move on was that he slipped last season; another was that they have Joseph to take his place. If there's a knock on him it's that he dropped too many would-be interceptions. So what? That can change. Joseph was a solid pick who is ready to become a full-time starter.
25. Pittsburgh: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
Wide receivers aren't supposed to produce much of an impact as rookies, but make Holmes an exception. He was the Steelers' second-leading receiver, led the team in punt returns and was its second-leading kickoff return specialist. Sure, he started slowly, but look at the results: He finished with 81 or more yards in catches in three of his last four games, including a season-best 124-yard effort in the season finale against Cincinnati. He not only filled a need; he became an effective weapon.
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| Santonio Holmes' production gave the Steelers plenty of reasons to smile. (Getty Images) |
Most clubs had McCargo an early- to mid-second-round draft choice, but the Bills weren't going to wait to find out. So they traded with Chicago for this pick, filled a position of need and now await the results. It's not only that McCargo wasn't all that impressive in the five games he played; he missed most of the season after breaking his foot. Score this one an incomplete.
27. Carolina: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
You're not supposed to get backs like Williams sitting at the 27th position. But Carolina usually figures out a way to find the player it wants -- or needs -- and it needed another running back. Williams didn't do a whole lot his rookie year, but, then, neither did many people on the Panthers offense. He never will be a workhorse like Stephen Davis, but he's capable of producing breakout games like his 114-yard effort against St. Louis. A perfect insurance policy against another injury to DeShaun Foster.
28. Jacksonville: Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA
He suffered a high ankle sprain in training camp and never really recovered. Sure, he played, but he was largely ineffective. Of course, so were other Jaguars receivers. Let's wait on this one.
29. N.Y. Jets: Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State
Another need pick for the Jets and another successful one. One of the best center prospects in years, Mangold anchored an offensive line that was so effective the Jets averaged 108.6 yards a game rushing with guys like Leon Washington, Cedric Houston and Kevan Barlow carrying the ball. Mangold and Ferguson were supposed to be part of a long rebuilding process, except the Jets skipped the rebuilding and went straight to the playoffs. Look for Mangold to go straight to the Pro Bowl next.
30. Indianapolis: Joseph Addai, RB, LSU
Next time the Colts allow a premier back walk I don't want to read another sky-is-falling story about the franchise. The team's critics seem to forget something, and