Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Would love to hold out for +3 here, but I don't think it's going to happen. The smart money is going to come in on the Seahawks, a team that's 42-12 straight up at home since 2012 and 13-2 at home in primetime (as well as 11-3-1 ATS in that stretch). The Chiefs have slowed down in the last few weeks, and this is another tough test for them and their 32nd-ranked rush defense, per DVOA. I'd make this line Chiefs -1 or pick 'em, and I think it'll get there by Sunday night. The lookahead line was Seahawks -1, and I'm not sure why it would make such a big move.
The Seahawks lost on the road to San Francisco last week and now return home to face KC. The first part of that sentence is responsible for this line being off by so much, and the second part is why you should be taking the Seahawks. Seattle's the best rushing team in the NFL and it's facing a KC defense allowing more than 160 rushing yards per game the last three weeks. The Seahawks are also 4-1-1 ATS at home this year. Take advantage to an overreaction to the 49ers loss.
Seattle is missing two key linebackers. Travis Kelce is going to have a huge game. I don't like the way Russell Wilson is throwing right now. The Chiefs' defense has improved a bit, and they have a good pass rush. Back the Chiefs.
The Chiefs' defense on the road is the most consistent in the NFL -- at being bad. They're ranked No. 31 on the road, allowing 34 ppg, and ranked dead last with 455 yards allowed. They've gone Over the total in six of their seven road games. Now they get to face the No. 1 rushing team at Seattle, which comes off a loss. I'm expecting both teams to score often. With 10 days of rest here, I'm not sure the Seahawks can keep up with the Chiefs, who are hanging onto the top slot in the AFC by a thread. Back the Chiefs laying less than a field goal.