There's reason to believe in the 49ers after a couple tremendous performances. San Francisco will be home for the third straight game after defeating Seattle and Denver as underdogs the last couple of weeks. I was burned on that former game, as I was with Chicago taking down Los Angeles a couple weeks ago. As the old saying goes, defense travels. The Bears have not been consistently great this season -- losses to the Giants and Dolphins prove that -- but they are humming with Matt Nagy figuring out what makes his team tick. Turnovers will be the difference here, giving Chicago more opportunities to score and win on the road.

This is a dangerous spot for the Bears, coming off a changing-of-the-guard win over the Packers and emphatically planting their flag as the NFC North's best team. Much like the teams before them, they're going to come out flat in San Francisco, where the 49ers are 4-3 this season and where Nick Mullens has looked surprisingly solid. The 49ers tackles can keep the worst of the Bears pass rush at bay, and San Francisco is a stunningly good statistical team when you look past their record. Everything screams to fade the Bears in this spot.

The Bears have won and covered seven of their last eight and are now the best cover team in the NFL (10-4 ATS), tied with the Saints. The 49ers play their third straight home game and looked impressive in outright wins over the Broncos and Seahawks the past two weeks. But this game is between the best in turnover margin (Bears +13) and the worst (49ers -22). Just five takeaways by the 49ers defense all season. Bears get the win and cover.

The Bears are coming off back-to-back "Super Bowl" efforts at Soldier Field, knocking off the Rams and Packers to announce themselves as Super Bowl contenders. Now they're traveling cross-country to face a 49ers team that's gone 3-1 SU and ATS at home with Nick Mullens. Chicago will be missing key defenders Aaron Lynch and Eddie Jackson. Look for the 'Niners, who are 7-1 in December the past two seasons, to keep it close.

The Bears have a chance at the No. 2 seed if they keep winning. Mitchell Trubisky is playing well, and Chicago leads the league in forcing turnovers. Nick Mullens is going to have a bad game; this is a big step up in competition.