Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The Bills have won three of their last five, with each of those two losses coming by four points. Now it looks like they're getting LeSean McCoy back. Everyone keeps expecting the old Patriots to show up. They'll likely win, but this is way too many points.
The Bills have quietly been a really good defensive football team throughout the season. I expect them to bring their A-game against a Patriots offense that'll be without WR Josh Gordon. Buffalo's rookie QB Josh Allen is still wildly inaccurate, but he's effective at running the ball and can hit 3-4 big time throws deep down field to put the team in scoring range. This one will be a wild one from start to finish. Teams treat the Patriots like their Super Bowl.
Sure, this could be one of those classic "Patriots explode" spots that we've been waiting for, and they are 6-0 at home despite their struggles. But the Bills team was competitive with Derek Anderson at QB against the Pats, who needed late points to get the cover in Buffalo. Josh Allen has powered the Bills to at least 14 points in their last four, which doesn't seem like much, until you remember how that offense was playing without him. The Patriots are going to win this game, but I doubt they hang a huge number on a great defense, so give me this massive amount of points.
Ignore the team names for a moment. If you can land the league’s second-ranked defensive squad receiving a hook below two touchdowns against an ultra-favorite with a misfiring offense, would you take it? Of course. QB Tom Brady seems to be abdicating his superstar status, in part because TE Rob Gronkowski has slipped and the remaining receiver corps is so-so. And now WR Josh Gordon has fled (personal reasons). Plus, the Bills could get back RBs LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Chris Ivory (shoulder) to complement their man ground threat -- yes, QB Josh Allen.
The first time they played, New England didn't score a touchdown until there was 9:58 left in the game. Buffalo's defense is playing very well and will pressure Tom Brady. And the Bills' QB can make enough plays to keep it close.
My trusty simulations show Tom Brady having a field day Sunday in Foxboro against the Bills in a game the Pats need to clinch the AFC East. Expect New England to bounce back in a big way against Buffalo after a sluggish offensive performance in Pittsburgh, in which it tied a season low with 10 points. The previous four games in this series -- all Patriots wins -- have been by 19, 21, 20 and 16 points. Needless to say New England has covered the spread in all four. Now is not the time to buck trends. Back the Pats.