Big Ben is going to play, but how effective will he be? The Steelers are in a free fall, with three straight losses and it would be four straight if the Jaguars hadn't blown a double-digit lead four weeks ago. That's 0-3-1 ATS in the last four as RB James Conner is banged up and also running out of gas. The Patriots have won and covered the last three meetings and I like Bill Belichick coming off a loss. Patriots laying less than a field goal is the play Sunday.

The Steelers lost last week on the road against the Raiders in a game where Ben Roethlisberger missed most of the second half due to Oakland's ancient x-ray machines. Take advantage of the value that's caused on this line, as Pittsburgh suddenly finds itself as an underdog at home to a Patriots team that is 3-4 on the road this season.

Bill Belichick blew the game last week. I bet he gets his team ready for this one. The Steelers are on a major downer, their situation is just not right. Defensively they're a mess. And they made a big mistake by not signing Le'Veon Bell. Tom Brady played a good game in Miami and he's got his key guys healthy. This is where Brady really turns it on. Back New England to avoid a second straight loss.