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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
Many people are discussing all the running back injuries in this game, and those are significant. But the Chargers also are banged up in their front seven -- that showed up in last week's close call against the lowly Bengals. Now they're visiting one of the league's toughest venues, against a coach who has their number. The home team will keep controlling Thursday nights.
The Chargers have been great this season, but Los Angeles is travelling for a road game on a short week without its best player -- and his backup. The Chiefs' only losses this season are to two of the other three best teams in the league. For the most part, they have otherwise dominated competition. The Chargers, meanwhile, have beat up pretty bad competition even though they are 4-1 ATS on the road. I have Kansas City as a six-point favorite at home, giving us great value with this line. It may be another big night for Travis Kelce.
Both teams are short-handed at running back which provides a meaningful edge to the Chiefs. Losing Gordon and Ekeler is a bigger hit to the Chargers than Kansas City losing Hunt and Ware. Justin Jackson is very talented, but he isn't enough to make up for what the Chargers are missing. This Chiefs team gets the biggest home field bump of any team in the NFL in my model. On a normal Sunday afternoon it's worth 3.2 points. On the short week in primetime it's worth 4.1 points in my model. The current number at -3.5 suggests the Chargers are 0.5 points better on a neutral field without their top two running backs? No thank you. I like Kansas City up to -5.5 in this game.
There are too many injury worries on both teams for the anticipated shootout between QBs Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers to develop. The Chargers will be down to their third-string RB if Melvin Gordon (knee) sits because backup Austin Ekeler (concussion) appears unavailable. Same, in a way, with the Chiefs, as former starter Kareem Hunt is gone and Spencer Ware (shoulder/hamstring) is doubtful. K.C. also likely will miss WR Sammy Watkins (knee) and G Cam Ewing (knee). L.A.’s standout defense will keep a lid on scoring.
These two teams are heading to the playoffs, and while there's plenty at risk in this game, the Chargers will still need help to win the division and No. 1 seed even if they beat the Chiefs. With the Chiefs dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense that could thrust Damien Williams and Chris Conley into prominent roles, and coming off a tough win against the Ravens, I can't see this being a shootout, especially if Melvin Gordon isn't at 100 percent to exploit the bad Chiefs rush defense.
The Chiefs have swept the Chargers every year since 2014. I don't like Philip Rivers in prime time, he's missing his top two running backs, and the Chiefs have gotten a better pass rush lately. Lay the points.
Pivotal matchup in the AFC West between two of the conference's best. The bad news for the Chargers is that this game is on a short week. They're also banged up at key spots. With a character-building victory last week against the Ravens, Kansas City looks to be in good shape on Thursday night.
The Chiefs won as 3.5-point underdogs at the Chargers "home field" in Week 1, 38-28, easily going Over the total of 48. The Chiefs have just two losses on the season and they came against elite teams (Rams, Patriots) and each loss was by only 3 points. But the Chiefs have gone just 1-4-1 ATS since starting the season 7-0 ATS. I wouldn't call them overrated, but I would suggest they're not as good without Kareem Hunt. The Chargers come in on a three-game win streak and can pull even with the Chiefs by winning. Because I like the Chargers' defense much more and the Chargers basically play on the road every week, I'm on the Chargers taking the points here.