While the Seahawks and Vikings have racked up victories as of late, neither has actually beaten any truly good teams. In fact, Seattle and Minnesota have each lost all four games against the best teams they have faced this season. The difference is the Vikings were 0-4 ATS in those contests, the Seahawks 2-2. This is a tough spot on a Monday night in Seattle with the Seahawks basically only getting home-field advantage credit. Doug Baldwin being out does not help Seattle, but he has been largely irrelevant this season anyway. The Seahawks can grind out the clock with a late lead and should cover this one with ease.

The Vikings have been feasting on bad teams. They're just 1-7 ATS against teams with winning records. They've also only covered twice in their last 11 Monday night games. The Seahawks come in a three-game win streak and are the No. 1 rushing team in the league. And the defense has slowly become respectable again. Seattle gets the win and cover.

Minnesota is just 1-3 SU in primetime this year, with the only win being against an overrated Packers team. Their defense hasn't played that well on the road, averaging more than 25 points allowed, and their offense hasn't scored more than 24 in five straight games. The Seahawks have an excellent home-field advantage, and their only losses since Week 2 have been to the Rams and Chargers. They're also 18-6-2 ATS in primetime games since 2012, including 10-3-1 ATS at home. Does this sound like the anatomy of an upset on Monday night? Not to me.

The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win over the 49ers last week and I like to fade teams the week after the win big. The public tends to get behind them too much, and that can provide value. In this case, Seattle's won three straight, but those wins have come against a Packers team that just fired its coach, a Panthers team in a freefall, and the 2-11 Niners. The Vikings will be a much more difficult test.

Whoever made the schedule is no friend of the Vikings. They play at New England, then cross country at Seattle? Kirk Cousins doesn't play that well against the good teams, Stefon Diggs isn't 100 percent and Seattle's defense is playing well. The Seahawks' running game has really set up their passing game. Russell Wilson has found a guy he can depend on downfield in Tyler Lockett, who has nine TDs. Lay the points.

Jumping on this now before the line moves up. The Vikings are a good team but something isn't clicking, especially when they play tough competition. They're now 1-7 ATS in their last eight versus winning teams, not to mention 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Monday night games. Doug Baldwin is healthy, the Seahawks have a huge homefield advantage, and this is virtually a playoff game given the wild-card standings. Kirk Cousins looked more interested in avoiding interceptions than he was in picking up first downs when he completed short, check-down throws on 3rd-and-16 and 4th-and-11 in the fourth quarter at New England. Lay the field goal.