A must-win game for both teams in this AFC South Division game. Tennessee plays slow and has an above average defense. I have the Titans No. 1 in points per play allowed. Not one of Tennessee's games have exceeded 51 points.

Both these offenses are clicking, and as a result, the total has gone over in five of the Colts' last six games, while the Titans have scored 28 and 34 points coming out of their bye with Marcus Mariota fully healthy. I don't think the Titans will slow down Andrew Luck, who has thrown at least three TDs in each of his last six games, and I don't see the Colts having an answer for a hot Titans offense. That'll get this game Over the total.

The Titans are hot right now, beating the Cowboys in a Monday Night Football performance and then surprising everyone against the Patriots last week. This has led to them being a bit overvalued here. The Colts have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL this season and Andrew Luck has never lost to this Titans team.

The Titans come into this game off a high-profile win, and that's caused them to be a bit overvalued after the lookahead line for this game was Colts -3. Andrew Luck has thrown three TDs or more in six straight games, and he brings a 9-0 SU record against the Titans in his career into this one. Marcus Mariota has strung together two excellent games in a row; can he make it three? I'd rather bank on Luck continuing his dominance and knowing that even if the Titans turn this into a shootout, Indy still has a good chance to cover anyway.

The Titans and Colts both come in playing well, but I'm giving Tennessee the edge in this spot because QB Marcus Mariota's play has been elevated to the point where the Titans could be a top-5 team in the AFC. Between solid defense and the offense clicking, the Titans had huge wins against decent teams the last two weeks. The Colts' three-game win streak has come against the Jaguars, Raiders and Bills. Titans are the play Sunday.