I get it that no one wants to take Brock Osweiler to win two straight, but Adam Gase found a way for the backup QB to have success in a tougher matchup than this last week. The Lions stink and have no business being a road favorite in any situation except maybe in Buffalo. The Detroit defense is terrible and was lit up by Dallas and Green Bay in its last two games. Miami has scored 27-31 points in three home games and should get there here, and the defense in ninth in DVOA. Trust Brocktober to get the win.

Since the 2008 NFL season teams coming off a bye have gone 168-149-10 ATS. So, if you'd just blindly bet them you'd have made money, but not much. When you look closer, though, you see that teams coming off a bye are 101-70-7 ATS when they're favored in their first game back. Road favorites are 45-20-2 ATS when coming off a bye.