Denver's defense has been completely gashed against the run, and even though Arizona's run game has been terrible, the formula is clearly there for them to have success on the ground. That should take the pressure of Josh Rosen, who has shown a rapport with fellow rookie Christian Kirk that should prove fruitful against Bradley Roby here. The Arizona defense ranks 10th in DVOA and should do its job against a Denver offense on the road on a short week. The Broncos have lost four straight; how are they a road favorite again?

You'll have to excuse me if I'm not quite ready to embrace the concept of "Case Keenum: Road Favorite." The Broncos offense has been one of the least efficient in the NFL this season, and while Arizona has been bad overall, it's been much better since Josh Rosen stepped in at QB. Take the home dogs on a short week.

Denver on the road is 1-9 under Vance Joseph, 1-11 in its last 12 away. Joseph is awful and Denver's weakness is run defense, which Arizona can exploit with David Johnson. This is a similar game to when the Broncos played at the Jets: facing a rookie QB who can play, with a running game behind him.