Backing the primetime home dog is typically the sharp bet in this spot. The problem with the "sharp" spot is traditional handicappers are too slow to come around on young quarterbacks. Mahomes is great, but this is really about Andy Reid and the offensive weapons that are propping him up. This is the best offense in the NFL and everyone is too slow to buy in. I'm taking the Chiefs at -3 in the first half.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are good for 35 points in this matchup. The Kansas City defense is bad enough that Keenum should find the endzone at least twice in this game. This total should be 55+. Take the Over.

There are plenty of ways I can talk myself into taking the Broncos: The Chiefs are likely overvalued after their start, the altitude and home-field advantage, the better defense. Ultimately, however, you have to look at the talent on the field. The Chiefs have it in spades, particularly on offense, and are capable of breaking out at any given time, even if they struggle for a stretch on Monday night. With the spread falling 1.5 points, I'm even more comfortable taking Kansas City here. (Though honestly, with my only two losses this week coming by 0.5 points, I could be a bit more comfortable at -3 and suggest buying that half point if you can.) It will be tough for Case Keenum not to have his best game of the season tonight against the Chiefs' secondary, but considering he hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 1, that won't be tough. Patrick Mahomes and KC's offense should roll once again.

Laying road chalk in primetime games is rarely a good idea in the NFL. However, the Chiefs are still the play in this game. Some of the "sharp" minds backing the Broncos here because "Mahomes has played way over his head and there isn't a large enough sample size of data". I'm usually someone who screams sample size, but I've seen enough of Mahomes considering the talent he has around him on offense. My only concern is the KC defense, but I expect this defense to improve as the season progresses. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are the difference makers in this game.

Case Keenum has three touchdowns and five INTs through three games, while we all know what Patrick Mahomes has done. The real story in this one is Denver's pass defense, which is not what we're accustomed to seeing. While K.C. likely won't hit its average of 39 points, the Chiefs will score plenty to cover.

Kansas City is legitimate and Denver's Vance Joseph is a terrible coach. Case Keenum isn't playing well either. With the Chiefs basically scoring at will, I'll stick with them and lay it.

I figure that, at some point, the Chiefs defense is going to cost it a game. It simply has to. I just don't expect it to be this week, because the Broncos aren't very good. Denver's two wins have come against Seattle and Oakland, who aren't good themselves, and the two wins came by a total of four points. The team we saw last week against Baltimore is a better representation of what this Denver team is, and I can't envision a world where a team led by Case Keenum can keep up with this Chiefs offense for 60 minutes.

How do you bet against this Chiefs offense that averages 39 ppg? Well, first you analyze the ratings for each team and see if there is value anywhere, and there is with the Broncos. The spread indicates that Kansas City is 8-points better than Denver and that's just not the case at one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL. Denver has gone 6-2 ATS in the past three seasons as a home dog and getting over a field goal in Denver is huge. The problem with the sports books' high rating on the Chiefs is that KC has the worst defense in the NFL allowing 474 ypg which has equated to allowing 30 ppg. Denver's Von Miller will harass Patrick Mahomes like he hasn't seen in his pro career yet. It's a big blow to the Broncos offense that rookie RB Phillip Lindsay may be suspended, but the home effect gives the Chiefs their most competitive game so far. Denver won both their home games in the fourth quarter behind Case Keenum. This will be a high scoring game, so the Over is in play as well with KC pace dictating all three games Over. Denver taking the points is the top play.