The Texans were supposed to be a contender in the AFC, but they've lost all three so far. Their desperation is part of the appeal for backing them Sunday. The Texans haven't played that poorly, they've just had some misfortune. The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Houston gets its first win Sunday against the Colts.

These two teams tend to play lower scoring games in Indy, and I see no reason that'll change this year. The Colts defense has played pretty well as their last two games have gone Under the total, while two of the Texans' three games have also gone Under thanks to the struggles of their offense. I do think the Texans pass rush can get home against a Colts team having O-line injury issues, and Andrew Luck's short passing game will help us get Under as well.

Since the 2010 season teams that start the NFL season 0-3 are 20-13-1 ATS in Week 4 games. As underdogs they've gone 16-9 ATS, and as road dogs they're 11-4 ATS. These are trends worth following.

The Colts are 1-2 but a few friendly bounces that could have gone their way would have them at 3-0. Andrew Luck is slowly returning to Pro Bowl form as Indy has covered in its previous two games against the Redskins and Eagles. The Texans fell badly to the winless Giants and find themselves in a must-win situation. Indy's offense may be a bit iffy, but the defense is solid. My trusty simulations project the Colts covering this spread nearly 60 percent of the time.