There are plenty of reasons to like the Browns and Baker Mayfield after their display last week, until you realize it came at home in a primetime game against the Jets. Cleveland does have a legitimate opportunity to win a handful of games this season, but Oakland is sitting at 0-3 and in desperate need of one this week at home. Asking Mayfield to go on the road and win on the West Coast in his first career start is a lot, even for a Heisman Trophy winner and exceedingly talented player. I like the Raiders to come out on top in this one and get right against a team that still has a lot of holes, particularly when it comes to its coaching.

It's time for the Raiders to earn their first win of the year. Baker Mayfield should be an upgrade at QB for the offense, but I don't expect him to have success right out of the gate. The Browns' rushing offense loses a key weapon with Tyrod Taylor on the bench, as the team's running backs have managed just 3.5 yards per carry. Derek Carr is completing 76.6 percent of his passes yet still fifth in net yards per attempt. The offense ranks third in plays per drive, fourth in yards per drive and 23 in points per drive, which will normalize eventually.

Number one overall pick QB's are 0-10 SU and ATS since 2003. I don't care... I'm backing Baker and the Browns. We have to make some pretty important assumptions to get to this number. 1) The Browns are significantly more motivated to play with Baker than any other play. 2) The loss of Josh Gordon is an addition via subraction. 3) Baker Mayfield is actually good. 4) The Browns are 3-0 if Baker starts the first game of the season. The good news is the Browns are an elite defensive unit, and the Raiders have zero pass rush. I've made some pretty significant bumps in the model, but the Browns should be -0.5 road favorites.

The Browns' offense looked so much better with rookie Baker Mayfield under center, and I expect that to carry over to this matchup with a Raiders defense that doesn't look all that imposing. It'll be on the Raiders offense to hold up its end of the bargain, and I think they can do that at home after hitting several big plays against the Dolphins.

The Raiders played well in all three of their losses and that's the main thing coming in that makes the Raiders attractive in a desperation spot against the visiting Browns. Cleveland rookie QB Baker Mayfield had magic in his debut last week, but on the road and him thinking about it all week is another thing. The last QB No. 1 overall pick to win his first start was David Carr in 2003. It's an 0-10 SU and ATS run since. Raiders get the win and cover.

What's being lost right now in all of the Bakermania is how excellent the Browns' defense has been every game this season. The Browns do a strong job vs. the run, they defend the pass well and most importantly, they turn the ball over. The Raiders' offense has been one of the more disappointing storylines this season, more so than its expectedly bad defense. Look for the struggles to continue this week as the Browns defense will give the rookie Mayfield more opportunities to have success, which he, and the offense will do a lot on Sunday.

Mayfield mania has pushed the line down from 3.5. The week's least surprising news was Cleveland naming quarterback Baker Mayfield as the starter after his riveting debut off the bench. Starting a game is a different animal. The Raiders have been oh-so-close to a win, leading after three quarters of their past two outings and at halftime in their opener. The Browns do benefit from time off after the midweek game while Oakland returns from a lengthy commute from Miami. Still, when 0-3 teams are not playing poorly that usually puts them on the cusp of a win.