Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
I know the Saints are a trendy pick this week, and I know I'm not getting the best line after waiting too long to get this in, but I also knew the second New Orleans started 0-2 that I was taking it in Week 3. With Keanu Neal out of the Falcons secondary, Drew Brees has an opportunity to open things up and keep Atlanta off balance throughout the day. There is some worry for me with the Saints defense but not enough where I don't think Brees and the offense cannot overcome it.
Atlanta has issues on defense. The Falcons have got a lot of guys hurt, and I think New Orleans is due for a breakout game.
Matt Ryan will torch this below average Saints pass coverage. The Saints have allowed 325 passing yards a game versus FitzMagic and Tyrod Taylor. Matt Ryan will throw for over 380 yards especially with Calvin Ridley involved. Last week Ridley was targeted nine times, with four receptions for 64 yards making the Falcons even more dangerous. The game probably goes over with Brees putting up points in garbage time.
I like taking the points in a divisional matchup where the 'dog likes to cover (though that wasn't the case last year). The Saints win the matchup advantage with three key players on IR for the Falcons, as the road team comes in relatively healthy. Drew Brees completed around 75 percent of his passes in each matchup with the Falcons last year, and I expect him to have similar success. I think worst-scenario is we get a push with the Saints having a great chance to win outright.
The Saints have yet to cover this season, but I think that changes Sunday against the banged-up Falcons. Drew Brees has been better on the road lately (100-plus passer rating last three away games), and last year he threw for 682 yards and five TDs with no INTs in two games versus the Falcons. Grab the points.
Through two weeks the New Orleans Saints have given up 48 points to Tampa Bay, and needed a kicker to miss multiple kicks to avoid losing at home to the Cleveland Browns. Now they go on the road to take on an Atlanta team that's just a different team at home. I'll take the Dirty Birds over Dirty Rice this week.