Everyone is talking about Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery not playing. I get it. Atlanta's receivers blow Philadelphia's out of the water, and Nick Foles is no Matt Ryan. Except ... Foles has a Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP to his name, and Ryan does not. The Eagles beat the Falcons a year ago with Foles under center and Jeffery hauling in just four catches for 61 yards. Jim Schwartz knows exactly how to take down Atlanta. Like many others, I seriously considered a Falcons pick when they were getting a handful of points. With this game now a pick 'em, I'll take the home team and defending champions feeling disrespected in front of a rowdy crowd on kickoff night.

It looks like the weather could be a factor in this game, with rain bearing in on Philadelphia. That turns what was already a lean on the Under into a pick for me. The Eagles offense could be in for trouble regardless of the weather with Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery out. However, the large swing in the line could lead to the Eagles defense feeling disrespected and playing at an elevated level. With that max-effort defense plus bad weather, look for this to be a low-scoring opener.

Jim Schwartz knows how to defend Matt Ryan, and this entire Falcons' offense. Following such a drastic line move, I'm on the home team to win a close one.

There's been so much attention paid to Carson Wentz's health and the fact Nick Foles will be starting that the line has shrunk to a pick and there isn't much value left there. There is value on the Under, however, as Philly deals with injuries all over its offense and will rely on its defense to keep things close. As for Atlanta, it's gone Under in seven straight games, and the Under was 13-5 in Falcons games last season. Thanks, Sark!

I think the Eagles' offensive and defensive lines are superior. Atlanta last year had a terrible time in the red zone. The Falcons were also 2-6 against the spread on the road. One possible key late in the game, Atlanta's long snapper is injured. In a low-scoring game, it could be a factor.

The trusty projection model loves the Eagles at this discounted price for Thursday's opener against the Falcons. I've got Philadelphia winning in 62 percent of simulations, which provides a massive bargain against what has dropped to a nearly pick'em price. The model sees a 25-20 final score, which would cover the opening number of -4.5. Jump on the Super Bowl champs in this one.

Well I'm officially ready to jump on the "sucker" side of this matchup. That is, if those with the steepest pockets are proven correct. Rarely has a Super Bowl champion seen such a backlash in the market in its first game the following season. Last I checked, the Eagles were capable of winning with Nick Foles at quarterback. Their playoff run included a home win over the Falcons, and it's not as if their roster has gotten substantially worse. Philadelphia was 7-1 at home last season, covering in six of those wins. The Eagles slept walk through the pre-season but there's major value behind them showing up when the lights go on Thursday night.

The rematch of last year's NFC Divisional Playoff will have a slightly different feel to it as the Eagles come in limping a bit offensively. The Falcons have a matchup advantage on the perimeter with their receiving corps against the Eagles secondary. Despite having a strong offensive line and reigning Super Bowl MVP returning in this game, I think the Eagles offense will sputter a bit out of the gate. Keep an eye on the Falcons linebackers, led by Deion Jones, as they will be the story coming out of this one.

We obviously didn't learn our lesson last season, downgrading Nick Foles and the Eagles too much when they promptly beat the Falcons and Vikings as 3-point home dogs in the playoffs and then took down the Patriots as a dog. We're doing the same thing again here, doubting the Eagles in their home opener because the offense and Nick Foles didn't look good in the preseason. The Eagles are as low as -1.5 in Las Vegas after being as high as -5.5 in May with Carson Wentz a possibility. It's saying the Falcons are 1 to 1.5-points better than the Eagles on a neutral field and I don't find that to be true, even with Foles starting and playing poorly in the preseason. I know a lot of people who are high on the Falcons to play the Super Bowl on their home field in Atlanta, but I'm not ready to go there yet. With Foles, Philly is still at least 1-point better than Atlanta on a neutral field, meaning laying -2.5 or less at home is attractive. Eagles are the play.

While the public obsesses over the QB predicament, the greater impact on the total is Philly’s overall health. Two RBs and three WRs were waylaid by injury throughout the preseason. The Eagles’ receiving corps would be severely impacted if WR Alshon Jeffery needs more time to heal from offseason surgery. Same with Carson Wentz, who is the superior QB, but Nick Foles did just fine in relief during the Super Bowl run. Atlanta maintains an image of a high-powered offense, but the Under dominated last season at 13-5. Historians will note that the Under is on a 9-3-1 run in this series.

I've been giving out Falcons +3.5 and Falcons +4 all offseason, and though I think this line is in the right place now, I'm still on the road team here. The Falcons have had all offseason to stew on their close playoff loss to this team, and I expect the offense to throw up points in this revenge spot. With the Eagles missing Alshon Jeffery and dealing with health issues at quarterback, I'm not sure they keep up. Falcons win outright.