Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Initially, I was waiting for this line to hit 10 to take the Jaguars, and I was sure it was heading in that direction. Instead, due to a Tom Brady injury scare, it has plummeted. It looks like I missed the best-possible line here at -7 -- and if you can get it or buy it, you should -- but I don't mind laying the hook here. As talented as Jacksonville's defense may be this season, Brady and Bill Belichick are undefeated against first-time playoff starting quarterbacks. New England will take away the run (for the most part, Leonard Fournette will still get some of his) and force Blake Bortles to win the game. Good luck with that. Pats win by nine or more.
I'm projecting 42 points for the AFC Championship Game, giving us a solid lean to the Under. The Under is cashing in 61 percent of my simulations.
The Patriots' first four games went Over the total and their defense allowed 132 points in those games (33 on average).But over the last 13 games the defense has allowed just 14 points per game, which would rank them first in the NFL. New England has gone 9-4 to the Under in that span. Everyone knows all about Jacksonville's defense: No. 3 in the NFL in points allowed (17.4), No. 1 in opponent QB completion percentage, No. 1 in opponent passing yards per game and No. 2 in yards per play allowed at 5.0. There also the chance Tom Brady's hand injury is worse than the Patriots are letting on. Go Under.
This line has come way down and now there's tremendous value on the Patriots. New England's defense has been lights out at home since early in the year, and Leonard Fournette isn't 100 percent. Lay it.
It never fails. Whoever is playing the Patriots is spotted a few more points than most analyses suggest is proper. So Jacksonville opened as an inviting nine-point underdog on the heels of playoff wins pulled off in the most contrasting ways conceivable. Impressive, to be sure. Well, when it comes to the Pats, there is danger in deep-diving into stats and matchups. The bottom line is, the one matchup that matters is . . . a mismatch. Nothing against the Jaguars’ Doug Marrone but, in the crucible of the postseason, nobody does it better than the Hooded One, particularly in a home game with a Super Bowl berth on the line. In seven tries under Bill Belichick, the Pats have won six, including four by double-digits. With the public driving down the line to 7.5, the Pats become more attractive here. Belichick’s teams are 16-0 in the playoffs when they win the turnover battle, and these Patriots avoided giveaways like the plague this season. They committed a dozen, second fewest in the league, and none versus Tennessee last weekend. Plus, what was a vulnerable rushing defense has improved, so corralling RB Leonard Fournette would put too much on wobbly QB Blake Bortles. The TD-plus spot is mighty shiny but ultimately fool’s gold.
Even before Tom Brady had to have his throwing hand checked out and missed practice, this was a good Under play just because of the rapidly improved Patriots defense that helped them go 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games allowing only 14 ppg. The second-ranked Jaguars defense allows 16.8 ppg. New England has stayed Under the total in nine of its last 13. If the Brady injury makes him only 85 percent, it offers great value Under. If Brian Hoyer takes any snaps, wow ... anyway, I'm on the Under.
There is something special about this Jaguars team. On the field, especially defensively, they match up better versus the Patriots than they did against Pittsburgh. Plus, on the other side of the ball, they are the most likely team to dance with the person they brought to the party. Both of those will make this one a tight, one-possession game.
Despite its deserved reputation as a defensive behemoth, Jacksonville was involved with games that reached 51, 54, 52, and 77 points down the stretch run of the regular season. You would not want to stake your life — or any stakes close to it — on QB Blake Bortles generating oodles of offense. But if RBs Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon are chewing up yards, Bortles can complete enough passes to keep the yardsticks moving and the scoreboard blinking. The tandem should produce. New England yielded 4.7 yards per carry this season, tied for second most in the NFL. As for the Patriots’ offense, well, QB Tom Brady is dy-no-mite at home and in the playoffs . New England rarely reaches the Over on the road anymore but, at Gillette Stadium, they have gotten there in eight of the past 11 appearances. Their postseason streak stands at four after New England toyed with the Tennessee defense last Sunday, scoring 35 points with ease. A bonus is the likely return of versatile RB Rex Burkhead (knee), out since mid-December. If you are unfamiliar with him, Pats patrons are not. The early weather forecast portends ideal conditions for scoring: temperatures near 50 and clear skies at kickoff.
There's a chance this line could edge down a bit, so I'd wait to put my bet in to get the best value, but I love the Patriots here. The Jaguars defense has now given up 42 points to Pittsburgh and 44 to the 49ers in two of its last three road games, and you can't expect Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville defense to have anywhere near the same level of success this week against a Bill Belichick-coached team. Expect the Patriots to protect the ball and while keeping Tom Brady in third-and-short situations to keep the pass rush on its heels. The Jaguars have to play from ahead to have any shot; good luck doing that in this matchup.