This has officially reached a take number on the underdog, with a full touchdown in hand up from openers as low as -4. The Buccaneers are nearly dead last in most defensive categories, which would seem a bad fir against Atlanta's potentially explosive offense. The Bucs also wouldn't seem to have much to play for, aside from playing spoiler to Atlanta's playoff surge. Expect them to do just that and, at best, make it difficult on Atlanta while also fading a major public side ATS.

I searched long and hard looking for a reason not to side with the Falcons as a road favorite and the only thing I could think of is I don't like being on the side of 95 percent of parlay bettors in Las Vegas. The sports books get buried with the Falcons if they cover after a rough Sunday. This is the type of game the books win. However, the Bucs are lifeless going 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 and those two covers were behind Ryan Fitzpatrick who isn't playing tonight. Bucs defense is banged up as well. Give me the Falcons.

This line feels too high to me. The Falcons' biggest road win of the season was six points against the Bears in Week 1, and they have to go on the road and face New Orleans in a huge divisional game next week. The Bucs will be playing their Super Bowl: a primetime game against a divisional rival at home. They've only been blown out once at home this year, to a better defense than the Falcons (Carolina). The earlier matchup saw the Falcons up seven at home late before a garbage-time TD, and in Tampa, we should see an even closer game. I'll take the points.

The Under has scored in four consecutive Bucs' home games and seven of the last 10 overall for Atlanta. But both these teams move the ball. Atlanta is deadlocked for third-highest yards per play and stands ninth for yards per game. You can find Tampa Bay at 10th (tied) and 12th in the same categories. Yards gained do not always correlate with points accumulated. In this instance, however, it offers evidence that the squads should score more than they have. Points usually are not in short supply with this series. The past three meetings have produced 55, 71 and 54. An earlier three-game stretch that involved Ryan (but not Winston) shows 54, 69 and 70. The Bucs’ defense is statistically superior to only one other team. Its hands will be full, especially if RB Tevin Coleman (concussion) returns, as the Falcons believe might happen. He and Devonta Freeman made up the most effective one-two rushing punch in the league a year ago. And now for the most appropriate trend line: The Falcons are on a 10-0-1 Over streak against opponents with sub-.500 records.

In his last four full games, Jameis Winston has committed nine turnovers. He now has 53 in 42 career games. The Bucs just let Matthew Stafford complete 82 percent of his passes in a home loss. With the Falcons in the playoff hunt and coming in on extended rest, I'll lay the points. This spread could go even higher. Atlanta has won the last two meetings by 14 and 15 points; Falcons take this one by at least a touchdown.