Locking this in before the line changes. Baltimore did struggle with Pittsburgh last week, but we're still talking about a one-point road loss against a team with way more weapons and talent than Cleveland possesses. If the Ravens can somewhat limit Josh Gordon, they're going to take advantage of plenty of mistakes in this one and should win by two scores -- as they have against better teams in Detroit, Green Bay, Miami, Oakland and Cincinnati this season. Oh yeah, Baltimore also beat Cleveland by 14 back in September, and you can argue the Ravens are playing way better now with Alex Collins starting.

The Ravens have won and covered the past four matchups against the Browns, including a 24-10 victory in Week 2. Baltimore has also gone 4-1-1 against the spread in its last six games to bolster its postseason hopes. The Ravens' only two losses during this six-game stretch has been a one-point defeat in Pittsburgh and losing at Tennessee by three. While that might look appealing, the Browns could sneak up on them here. It's Cleveland's final home game and possibly it's last legitimate shot at a win. Look for the Browns' best game of the season. I'm on Cleveland taking the points.

It seems crazy to back the Browns because of the myriad ways they find to lose, but a look inside the numbers shows how competitive they've been. Grab the touchdown.

This should be a good Over spot with the total set at a low number. The Ravens have scored 82 points over their last two games, and they'll be facing a Browns secondary missing at least one quality CB in Breian Boddy-Calhoun, maybe two if Jamar Taylor can't play. Josh Gordon has given the Browns offense a jolt, and he'll get to face a Ravens defense that just gave up 545 yards against the Steelers and is without star corner Jimmy Smith.

The Browns nearly got their first win last Sunday, but the Ravens are firing on all cylinders and a playoff berth won't be denied with a loss in Cleveland. Baltimore covers in a big 58 percent of my simulations