This line opened at Bills -4 online on Saturday and quickly steamed down to -3. I expect it to keep dropping on Sunday. With Tyrod Taylor not expected to start due to injury, the Bills will have to turn to rookie Nathan Peterman, who threw five picks in his first start. He has a much easier matchup here, but in addition to having a clear advantage at quarterback, the Colts have played quality rush defense, ranking 13th in DVOA in that category. They've also held five straight opponents to less than 100 rushing yards. That adds up to a definite play at Colts +3.

It appears that Buffalo rookie QB Nathan Peterman will get the call from the bullpen for the ailing Tyrod Taylor (knee). No team should be granting three points with a late-round pick at the helm whose only previous start was an unmitigated disaster. Peterman was swallowed up by the Los Angeles Chargers. Indy’s defense is nowhere near as good but should be able to keep Buffalo’s scoring to a bare minimum. Peterman also bombed in relief of Taylor last Sunday — albeit against the Patriots — with a motley 49.3 passer rating. The Bills, who have covered just once in the past five games, now must depend on RB Le’Sean McCoy, but Indy has restricted five consecutive foes to under 100 rushing yards.