Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
I was hoping to see this fall a half point, but with Antonio Brown healthy and the Steelers' entering the game with their full contingent of playmakers, I like them to take down a Bengals squad that struggled to defeat the Broncos recently and has been wholly inconsistent all season. Give me Big Ben and Co. to win by a touchdown or more.
My simulations have this game projected for 39 total points giving a clear play on the Under. The Bengals and Steelers both rank in the top 10 in points allowed. The Bengals are going to have to really improve offensively from the first meeting where they managed just 179 yards on offense. It's never fun to take the Under with Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell on the field, but I'm on the Under.
The Bengals have won their past two games and covered their last three. Things are on the upswing, right? For starters, let's consider those two wins were against Cleveland and Denver who are both on epic franchise lows. When they played a good Jacksonville defense they scored only 7-points. The Steelers come in winning and covering the last five meetings and all five of those Cincy teams were much better than the 2017 Bengals. Steelers get the cover.
I'm expecting Antonio Brown to play; he traveled with the team to Cincinnati. Assuming Brown is declared active, this line will go up to a key number (6) and I'd rather lay it now. Even if Brown doesn't suit up, Pittsburgh has plenty of weapons, led by Le'Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Steelers absolutely dominated the Bengals after halftime in the first meeting, and -- get this -- they're 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 visits to Cincy. Andy Dalton has failed to throw for 160 yards in his last two matchups with Pittsburgh. Back the Steelers.
This has all the makings of an Under game. Last week's shootout with the Packers was the first time the Steelers have given up more than two offensive TDs in regulation this season. The Bengals don't have a great offense, ranking 24th in points per drive. They couldn't move the ball at all in their first meeting with the Steelers, managing just 179 yards of offense. The Steelers' offensive ceiling could be severely lowered with Antonio Brown nursing a toe injury and potentially out for this game. Throw in the possibility of rain and the defenses should rule in this one.
This marks the 24th meeting between Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Cincinnati Marvin Lewis, two of the most entrenched coaches in the league. Only seven encounters have delivered more points than this total -- and two of those by the thinnest of margins, with 44 scored. The Steelers have perhaps the NFL’s most enviable QB/RB/WR combo with Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. That does not always translate into offensive breakouts. Pittsburgh is above average in scoring at No. 12, but those elite names and others should add up to a loftier ranking. Granted, 43.5 is no tall hurdle for the Steelers. But the Bengals, coming off a career-best rushing effort of 114 yards by Joe Mixon, figure to work him to the bone again during time-consuming possessions. The Bengals, 25th in scoring, have misplaced their passing game, and the rookie RB injects some welcome balance to the offense. Both teams are top 10 for points against -- Pittsburgh fourth, Cincy 10th -- so the Under trend in this Tomlin-versus-Lewis saga should be extended. Then there is -- shockingly! -- rain in the forecast. If it’s a downpour instead of a drizzle, passes could be few and far between.
I'm projecting 37 points for this bitter rivalry on Monday Night Football, giving us a strong play on the Under. The Under is cashing in 67 percent of my simulations.