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Expert Picks
The Under was 13-12 on games in the 30s, pending the Sunday outcome of Jacksonville-Arizona. The public and linesmakers have correctly anticipated low-scoring matchups. We can smell another. The Ravens are contending for owning the worst offense ever for a playoff contender. It ranks 31st. QB Joe Flacco is on the downside, and the team rarely eclipses the 100-yard mark on the ground. Throw out the Texans’ No. 13 ranking on offense, which was built around now-injured QB Deshaun Watson. Tom Savage’s passer rating of 71 is a whopping 32 points below Watson’s, and he seems to aim every pass to WR DeAndre Hopkins, a sign that nobody else can be trusted. He likely will again, with WR Will Fuller (ribs) out. Two absentees on the offensive line will further complicate Savage’s task. RB D’Onta Foreman rushed for two touchdowns last Sunday, only to tear his Achilles. A pair of Baltimore defenders with injury concerns will play, giving the Ravens a shot at their fourth shutout of the season. Baltimore will stay cautious with the ball in the belief that 17 points scored should do the trick.
We're getting the No. 1 defense in terms of DVOA here at home against a Texans offense led by Tom Savage. That should be enough to pull the trigger, but the issue is whether the Ravens can score enough points to get the cover. While they're a terrible passing team in terms of DVOA (30th) and net yards per pass attempt (32nd), they've managed to score 20 or more in four of their last five games, including multiple offensive TDs in each of their last three. The Texans defense has struggled, particularly against the pass, and a mostly-healthy Ravens attack should be able to move the ball. I also don't expect a back-door cover here against an elite defense.
If it wasn't for Joe Flacco's 11 interceptions, the Ravens would easily have the best turnover margin team in the NFL. As it sits right now, Baltimore is +8, three behind Jacksonville's +11. The Ravens' defense has been the entire reason they're in the running for a wild card. Between an effective pass rush and a ball-hawking secondary, they've forced an NFL-leading 23 turnovers, which includes an NFL-best 16 interceptions. Those lead to short field situations and easy scores. Tom Savage has an even worse rating than Flacco and he should be expected to struggle. This is the second highest spread the Ravens have had this season. Still, look for Baltimore's defense to force Savage on the road to commit turnovers. I'm betting Baltimore makes him look bad and they cover because of his errors.