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Expert Picks
With improving Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (concussion) green-lighted to play, the spread moved ever so slightly -- yet significantly -- a half-point. At three, the Titans are the logical play, having downed Indy by two touchdowns earlier this season. The Colts yield nearly eight yards per pass, most in the league, so QB Marcus Mariota should be able to supplement the strong ground game at his disposal with effective throwing. Tennessee is historically awful in general on the road — and at Indianapolis in particular. But an additional three days between games provided the Titans some rest around the holiday, and they are incentivized to push toward a division title while the Colts look to next year.
The Titans finally ended a long losing streak against the Colts in a Week 6 36-22 win at Nashville. Starting with that game, the Colts are currently stuck in a 1-4 skid. Indy comes off a bye and its last game was a tough 20-17 home defeat by the Steelers, who also beat the Titans last week, 40-17. That score put the Titans Over the total for the third straight game -- and 7-3 for the season. Colts QB Jacoby Brissett is outperforming Marcus Mariota and has seven TD passes to just two picks in his last five games. This should be a high-scoring game, I'm on the Over.
With Jacoby Brissett cleared for this game, I'm expecting a shootout between these two teams in Indianapolis. Take away the garbage-time TD the last time these two teams met and there still would've been 50 points scored. The Titans have seen their last three games go Over the total despite playing top-notch defenses, and while the Colts have been an Under team recently, the Over was 6-2 in their first eight games. Both teams know they need a lot of points to win this game, and I expect several big plays to help us Over the total.
The Titans have only covered once in their last seven games, and it was against this same Colts team in Indianapolis. But if you remember, that game was tied late and Derrick Henry covered with a TD when all he needed was a first down to end the game. The Colts have only been blown out once at home this year, with their other four games ending in a three-point margin either way. The Steelers played these two teams in succession, barely beating the Colts in Indy by three and then blasting the Titans at home. I'm not sure Tennessee is miles better than Indy right now. If the Titans win, expect it to be by three
The Titans do not show up for big games and could potentially find themselves out of the playoffs. This is a must-win game, which means that Colts QB Jacoby Brissett will outperform his counterpart. Take the points.