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Expert Picks
Paxton Lynch is making his first start of the season on the road in Oakland, and while that may not be the greatest homefield advantage anymore, it's a difficult scenario, especially with Khalil Mack breathing down his neck. In the end, I just don't think the Broncos are going to have enough offense to get it done on Sunday. Denver has not won or covered on the road this season. That continues this week.
Denver’s offensive travails are well-documented, and QB Paxton Lynch has drawn the short straw to try to make something out of almost nothing. Less noticeable has been the Broncos’ decline on defense. The unit was decent last Sunday against Cincinnati, but Denver yielded 121 points over the three previous weeks. What’s more, the visitors are winless against the spread on the road. Oakland has not played at home since Oct. 19. Since then, there was a bye, two road games and a neutral site. The team relishes the chance to reacquaint with Raider Nation and will take the opportunity to kick Denver -- which has ruled the series lately -- while it’s down.
Key line movements within the division are worth taking notice. Earlier this year, the Broncos covered as three-point favorites against the Raiders at home. Amidst a horrid stretch of play from the Broncos, a 7.5-point spread differential has occurred. That’s a bit of a stretch for a Raiders team that, based on talent, has underachieved just as much. Grab the Broncos.
Third-stringer Paxton Lynch starts this week for the Broncos and he's a disaster, but deserves a shot. It appears Denver is attempting to shake things up amid a six-game losing streak -- fights in practice, a player late to a meeting getting cut and VP John Elway taking direct complaints from star players. I don't care how bad the Raiders have been lately going 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight, Lynch is the bet against here. Another possible reason he's playing is because Elway wouldn't mind getting a high pick in the QB-deep draft. I'm not saying tank, but there's already a big cloud of ugly hovering over the Broncos right now. Raiders get the cover.
I think we could see a no-show from the Raiders defense in this game after DC Ken Norton Jr. was shown the door, so I'm going to hop on the Over in this game. Denver's defense struggled against three good offenses over the past month before delivering a good game against the Bengals last week, and Oakland should be able to put up some points in this game. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense has gotten trashed recently, allowing at least 30 points in four of their last six games.
I understand that the appetite isn't there to bet on the Broncos after they've lost six straight, five by double digits. But despite last week's home loss to Cincinnati, they looked better in that game, particularly on defense, where the Broncos gave up just 190 yards total on the day. It's hard to anticipate how Paxton Lynch will play as he takes over the QB job, but the Raiders defenders don't seem stoked that DC Ken Norton was shown the door this week and could be in for a poor effort. Both these teams are playing poorly, and the Raiders haven't won a game by five points since Week 2. They won't do it here either.
The Broncos needed a fresh start, and hopefully they'll get one with Paxton Lynch taking over at QB. He'll face a defense that has zero interceptions this season. Denver should have enough offensive success to stay within this number.
Despite the calamity of the QB situation in Denver, the Broncos' defense is still good enough to slow down Oakland. Denver covers here, and don't be surprised by an outright win.
I'm projecting 49 points for Broncos-Raiders, giving us a solid play on the Over. Expect the Oakland offense to bounce back at home after its terrible performance in Mexico City. This Denver defense is not close to what it used to be. The Over is cashing in 61 percent of my simulations.