The wrong team is favored in this game due to the recent performance from the Saints. I don't trust Drew Brees on the road, and I think the Bills defense is largely under-rated, especially on their home field. I missed the best number on this game while waiting for confirmation on Charles Clay. With Clay available, I make the Bills -2 favorites. Take the points!

The Saints' defense isn't as good as their recent performances suggest. Look for both teams to get into the mid-20s as this game goes Over.

The Saints lost their first two games against Minnesota and New England and then ran off six straight wins versus teams most likely sitting home during the playoffs. I really like the Bills and think they are underrated coming off a bad game against the Jets, who have been far better than anyone expected. At least they had more time to prepare and mull over the embarrassment when they were expected to win as a three-point favorite on the road. Buffalo is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home. Play on the Bills.

The Bills are 4-0 at home, and only one of those games was won by less than a touchdown. While the Saints are flying high, there isn't a team in the league that should feel comfortable going to Buffalo. The Saints D has been much improved this year but still ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA. Rookie Dion Dawkins steps in for an injured Cordy Glenn, but Dawkins has been a better run blocker this year anyway. I expect the Bills defense to come to play and keep the Saints offense in check enough for the Bills run game to dominate all day and get Buffalo another win.

This is a high total for me considering Buffalo ha a quality defense that's only allowed more than 20 points twice this year and is playing at home. The Saints defense has been excellent for a change, and four of their last five totals have gone Under as a result. Look for both these teams to focus on running the ball, which will chew up clock, and I like both defenses to solidify in the red zone. Both teams rank 20th or below in yards allowed per drive but in the top 10 in points allowed per drive. That's no accident.

The Bills may be 5-3 compared to the Saints at 6-2, but they're a perfect 4-0 at home. My simulations have Buffalo winning straight up 53 percent of the time and covering 57 percent of the time.