Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
Read More
Expert Picks
Not getting the best line here with Jacksonville, but I think the Jags cream the Chargers on Sunday. Jacksonville's defense should feast on an L.A. team flying across the country for a 1 p.m. kickoff. Wish I had gotten in a bit earlier, but I expect the Jags to run all over the Chargers and control the game from start to finish.
The Jaguars look more and more legit with every passing week. They've given up less than 10 points in five of their eight games, and the offense is doing a good job generating points consistently. Their offense is of course built around the run, and run defense is a weakness for the Chargers, who rank 26th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in yards per carry. The Jaguars' rushing attack should rebound from a poor game against the Bengals that for some reason had to be played without Leonard Fournette. The Chargers are better passing than running the ball, but Jacksonville's league-best pass defense should limit them.
What's not to like about the Jaguars? They lead the NFL in sacks (35), scoring defense (14.6) and rushing yards per game (166.5). That's a Super Bowl type of formula, but I don't believe it's reflected in the rating for this game, with the Chargers getting a little too much respect. Let's give Jacksonville close to 2.5-points for home field with a more excitable crowd based on recent Jags' success. I like Jacksonville to be closer to the dead number of -5.5 here because I have them almost 3-points better than the Chargers on a neutral field, and a West Coast team playing a 10 am PT game is worth a half-point. Jaguars are the play.