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Expert Picks
Adam Gase is angry. Dolphins fans should like Adam Gase when he's angry. Last season, as Miami was being embarrassed early, he cut three offensive linemen. The Fins responded by winning six straight. Miami has faced a ton of adversity in this young season, but the Dolphins played like a trash 10 days ago. The key there is "10 days ago." Gase called his team out after the game proved he was serious about Miami's culture by trading starting running back Jay Ajayi -- showing the rest of the team that no one was safe. At the end of the day, these are professionals with pride. Miami is not as bad as it has played at times this season, whereas Oakland is not as good as it looked in that close win over Kansas City a few weeks ago. Devante Parker is back. So is Jay Cutler. Kenyan Drake is talented. Night game at home. Give me the points.
Oakland gets back Marshawn Lynch, which should help a rather average offense. Inside talk around Oakland is Derek Carr has lost some arm strength so he has had to settle for more of a short-passing game. Miami has the worst offense in the NFL, averaging just 13.1 points per game, and then the Dolphins trade away their best offensive weapon in Jay Ajayi. Jay Cutler returns, along with his horrible 5.5 yards per attempt average. Go Under.
The Dolphins had extra time to prep and are coming off a national TV humiliation. Take Miami to give one of its most inspired efforts all season.
The good news for Oakland bettors is that the team trained all week in Florida following its loss to Buffalo to avoid another long East Coast trip. The bad news is the offense still is having issues, which has been the case in five of the past six weeks (1-5 ATS). There's more bad news for Oakland as three of its regular cornerbacks are out. Meanwhile, the Dolphins get Jay Cutler and WR DeVante Parker back this week. I'm looking for a low-scoring game here. Under 44 is the top play.
With Cutler and Parker looking like they'll be back, I'm going Over on this total. The Raiders are dealing with a ton of injuries, but most are on defense, which should open things up for the Dolphins passing attack. Three of the Raiders' last four games have gone Over, and they've given up 30 points or more in each of them. The Raiders should also have no trouble moving the ball on a Miami defense that's struggled lately, seeing two of their totals go Over after opening the year with five straight Unders.
The Raiders wisely chose to remain in the Eastern time zone after playing last Sunday at Buffalo -- and, more wisely, not to spend the week in temptation-filled south Florida. They are on the short list of most disappointing NFL teams this year, but they still score with some regularity. Miami? Not so much.
Everyone is all over the Raiders this week after the Dolphins were embarrassed last Thursday. I expect Miami to play with much better focus after that drubbing. It's not like the Raiders have been rolling through their opponents either, losing five of their last six games and topping 17 points just once during that stretch. That's not the profile of a team that should be favored on the road, especially on long travel. Miami ranks 31st in offensive DVOA, but Oakland also ranks 31st on the defensive side. The trade of Jay Ajayi should serve as a wakeup call for this team, and they win outright here.
Miami not only ranks rock-bottom league-wide on offense but averages a gaping 27 yards per game below the next-worse team. Adam Gase is restoring Jay Cutler at QB this week, not that it should make any difference. And not that Jay Ajayi was tearing it up, but he did account for 89 percent of the team’s rushing yardage by RBs. With his trade Monday, the job goes to Damien Williams and/or Kenyan Drake, household names only in their homes. The Raiders have no ground game. Even if they did, Miami’s defense rates seventh for yards given up. Oakland ranks 20th for yards advanced on offense. Its three away games this year have fallen short of the totals by 7.5, 16.5 and 18 points. Prior to the past two outings, Miami’s games landed in Under territory by 10, 17, 31.5, 15.5 and nine points. And last Sunday’s Over deserves an asterisk: Miami was shut out, thus contributing zilch to the total. I’m with Coach Gase.
The wheels are falling apart right now in South Beach. Despite the Dolphins having enough talent to compete, they are not getting the job done this season. Last week the Raiders literally gave the Bills points on ridiculous turnovers. You’ll see much better ball security in this game. Lay the points with Oakland.