Kansas City has been one of my favorite teams to pick the last two years, but in a road game against a full-strength Dallas squad that has Zeke in tow, it's a good spot to pick against the Chiefs. The Cowboys know every single game matters until Zeke serves his suspension, this might as well be considered a must-win at home. Dallas still has the Eagles (twice), Seahawks and Redskins among others before the regular season is out.

The Chiefs have allowed 27 or more points in six of their past seven road games. Back the Cowboys, with Ezekiel Elliott in tow, to extend that trend and cover.

The 6-2 Chiefs are covering 59 percent of my simulations Sunday in Arlington, Tex. Dallas will be without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, and I expect Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt to have big days against the suspect Cowboys defense.

Though Kansas City has terrorized defenses at times, I do a double-take when seeing a total above 50 next to the Chiefs. (Their previous high this year was 48.) Last I checked, the Ezekiel Elliott suspension is back on, but that doesn’t necessarily mean more passes for QB Dak Prescott. Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden are capable backup RBs. Dallas’ defense, ranked 13th, should prevent K.C. from going hog wild.

The Cowboys took a hit when Ezekiel Elliott's suspension was upheld, and while it's possible it could affect where the public comes in on this game, I don't think it's going to have an effect on the field. The Chiefs defense has been awful this year, particular against the run, and the Cowboys' offensive line should pave the way for whomever is carrying the ball. Furthermore, Dak Prescott has proven he's able to win games with his arm, and Kansas City's pass defense just isn't that impressive without Eric Berry. The Chiefs should be able to move the ball, but the Dallas defense has improved over the last two weeks, and I like Dak to win a shootout if needed.

Locking this is now before it moves anymore in favor of Kansas City. The Cowboys are going to struggle to replace Zeke on offense, and they won't hold Kareem Hunt to less than 50 rushing yards like Denver did. Take Kansas City.