The Bills have really struggled in night games to the tune of 3-16 straight up in their last 19 night games. I know, this is not the same Bills team. I've heard that before. My simulations make the Bills just a -1.5 favorite and my gut likes the Jets as a primetime home underdog. I'm taking the points!

The last two meetings between the Jets and Bills have stayed Under, including a 30-10 Jets win at MetLife Stadium last season in Week 17. They met in Buffalo Week 1, and the Bills won 21-12. Five of the last six meetings have stayed Under. I expect the Buffalo defense to be strong, but the offense to be ultra-conservative, keeping this game Under.

We have a chance to fade the Bills here while their stock is extremely high coming off two home wins against teams that might not be good. They aren't quite as dangerous on the road, as shown by their loss in Cincinnati to a team that no one would confuse with being good. The Jets play well at home, covering the number in all four home contests this year. Josh McCown should be able to throw it a little against a pass defense that's given up 300-plus passing yards in three straight games. I think there's a better chance of the Jets winning outright than the Bills covering -3, so the moneyline is worth considering too.

I'm projecting 36 points for Bills-Jets on Thursday, giving us a strong play on the Under. The Under is cashing in 68 percent of my simulations. The first meeting was a 21-12 Buffalo win and I see a closer, but similarly low-scoring affair here.

The Jets don't have a big homefield edge, and Buffalo's defense will be the best unit on the field. New York's Muhammad Wilkerson is considered unlikely to play, due to the short turnaround. Take Buffalo to keep rolling.

The Bills have gone Over in all three road tests and stand 15th in the league in scoring. The Jets have engaged in games with 59 and 65 points. Last week’s outing against the Falcons produced 45 in heavy ran and strong winds. Their defenses rank 22nd and 26th in yards allowed, so the teams yield points as well. Yet they have combined for an unexpectedly high eight wins, so the offenses are doing something right. The Bills top the league with 17 takeaways, which can lead to scores. But if their two Mos, DE Mo Wilkerson (shoulder, foot) and CB Mo Claiborne (foot), are scratched, the Jets could score mo’ points than usual. Lastly, Thursday night seems to be right for bunches of scores. This season, the mid-week specials have hit 80, 61 and 51, plus 49 twice already.