At home, on a two-game losing streak -- it's a great spot for the Chiefs. Look for Denver to fall to 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.

The Chiefs are getting two-thirds of the public bets for good reason: They're better than the Broncos. A touchdown may seem like a lot -- even at home -- against a strong defensive team, but despite KC's weaknesses on that side of the ball, Denver does not offer much to be scared about. The Broncos have averaged 10 points over their last four games, and even if you spot them another 10, I'm confident KC can muster four touchdowns at home on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs have won and covered the past three meetings and I've seen nothing with Trevor Siemian to suggest the win streak won't continue. The Denver QB has been at his worst in two road games with no TD passes and three picks. Last week was the worst look in a 21-0 loss at the Chargers. The Chiefs have lost two straight after starting 5-0, but the offense looked good last week in a loss to Oakland. Chiefs get the cover and the number is rising so bet ASAP before it gets off -7.

This Chiefs defense has been smoked all year, but look at the offenses they've played (pass DVOA rank in parentheses): Patriots (2), Eagles (3), Chargers (10), Redskins (7), Texans (9), Steelers (6), Raiders (12). There's not a bad QB in the bunch. Now they'll get to face Trevor Siemian and the Broncos, which rank 22nd in pass DVOA and have scored 16 points or fewer in four straight matchups, two of which coming against well below average defenses. Denver still has a quality defense, but one that's not getting turnovers, and the Chiefs haven't given the ball away since the Kareem Hunt fumble in Week 1. This sets up for a Chiefs blowout.

This is usually one of the premier matchups in the AFC. This season, the luster has been taken off a bit because of the Broncos' inept offensive attack. The Chiefs will be fired up at home after losing two straight. Denver will run into a buzzsaw, while KC takes advantage of a defense that will be tired by the third quarter. Lay the points.

Kansas City came out of the gates running, and I mean running. The Chiefs averaged 6.9, 5.9, 7.6 and 5.4 yards per carry and more importantly 163.5 yards per game through the first four, which everyone knows were all wins and pointspread covers. KC then beat Houston, which lost the top defensive player in the NFL in J.J. Watt. However, the Chiefs only averaged 3.6 yards per carry in that victory. Since then the Chiefs lost to Pittsburgh and at Oakland. In the last three games, the Chiefs are netting 3.4 yards per carry. Their running game, mainly Kareem Hunt, kept defenses so honest it was easy for Alex Smith. Smith completed 76% of his passes during the 5-game winning streak and a pedestrian 63% in the last two losses. The Broncos have the #1 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 3 yards per carry and 71.4 yards per game. Denver has been horrific offensively, scoring 42 points over its last four games -- the exact same amount the Broncos poured on the Cowboys. Denver ran for 140-plus yards in its three wins, and now faces a Chiefs run D that's ranked 26th. These teams are where they're at in large part because of turnover margin. KC is plus=7. Denver minus-8. Those tend to even out. I'll take the team with the better defense getting more than a touchdown. My bonus lean is on the Under, as I expect both sides of this division rivalry to try to stress the run.