I'm expecting a quick start for the Falcons who should lean heavily on Julio Jones against a weak Patriots secondary. I don't enjoy betting against the Patriots at home, in a prime time game, but I'll gladly take the +1.5 with the Falcons in the first half.

The biggest revenge game of the year comes Sunday night, and at this point of the 2017 season the Falcons look like the better team. Their offense has not been explosive like last year. But with all of New England's defensive injuries, Atlanta is better on that side of the ball. I'll take the better defense playing with revenge.

Super Bowl revenge doesn't factor into my calculations. I've got the Patriots winning by more than a touchdown and covering 59 percent of simulations. The Falcons just aren't the same team this year, in part due to the change at offensive coordinator. New England's defense has shown improvement lately and will support the offense enough to cover.

Atlanta has solidified their standing this year as a team that starts fast and sputters in the second half, much like how the Super Bowl shook out between these two teams back in February. New England's defense has been awful, but rather than taking Atlanta to cover the three over the entire game, I'm much more confident they have the lead at halftime, so I'd be looking to back them in the first half and the Patriots on the live line at halftime.

The Patriots really haven't come close to covering a home game yet. They're 1-2 straight-up in those games. While the Falcons have myriad issues of their own -- they miss Mohamed Sanu, and Vic Beasley was totally ineffective in his first game back from injury last week -- they're the right side Sunday night. It has nothing to do with Super Bowl revenge. These teams are equally good offensively on a yards-per-play basis, but defensively Atlanta has a nice edge. The Falcons give up 4.9 yards per play, the Pats a league-high 6.6. The offensively-challenged Jets would have put up 24 points against New England if not for a strange end-zone ruling on Austin Seferian-Jenkins' apparent TD catch. Coming off two straight maddening home losses, the Falcons will be in this one to the wire. Grab the points.