We've got Marcus Mariota playing here and he's facing a team he's never beat. The Colts have won 11 straight against the Titans and covered 10 of those. But I think he gets a win here and a cover. Tennessee has lost its last two games since Mariota got hurt. But their offense looked pretty sweet in the previous two games, big wins against Seattle and Jacksonville. Jacoby Brissett has been okay, but I see this game getting ugly. Titans win by double digits.

Marcus Mariota is limited with a hamstring injury and Jacoby Brissett is in a rough spot making a primetime road start. The first half total of 24 is too high for two teams that will require a few possessions to really get things rolling offensively. Take the Under.

Get on the Titans now because I think the line will go to -10 or -10.5. QB Marcus Mariota is going to play and with the Titans coming off a poor performance, I look for a rejuvenated team, a strong homefield advantage and a comfortable win. Lay it.

If history tells us anything, it's that the Colts are going to beat the Titans on Monday, just like they've done in the last 11 meetings (and in 16 of the last 17 meetings) between these two teams. But that trend overlooks one simple counterargument: the Colts suck this year. They sport an abysmal negative-1.2 yards per play differential on the season, well behind the Titans' total and that of most other teams. If Marcus Mariota plays, and reports suggest he will, this line should be at least -10, even at less than 100 percent. The Colts are a bad team that's been lit up outside of Indy, where they've played close games against three other terrible teams.

Even though Marcus Mariota is fully expected to start, there's a good chance he won't be as effective as usual. Which means Tennessee will run the ball, then run some more. The Colts' run defense is a lot better than was expected coming into the year. They allow 3.9 yards per carry. Indy has beaten the TItans 11 straight times. While I don't expect an outright upset by the Colts, a 6- or 7-point loss feels about right.