The Cardinals are winning outright in most of my simulations and covering 58 percent of the time. Jameis Winston has been shaky on the road. Look for Arizona to play with urgency in front of its home fans. Take the points.

We tend to think an injury to a starting QB is the most damaging to a team. Yet none has been more negatively impactful as RB David Johnson’s. His extended absence, along with shoddy blocking up front, means Arizona’s dynamic offense has been downgraded to mediocre at best. The Cards’ scoring average of 16.2 ranks 29th. As a result, their past four games have gone Under. This week’s acquisition of RB Adrian Peterson will only help a smidgen. He averages a paltry 3.1 yards per carry. Tampa Bay pinned just 14 points last week on the Patriots’ shaky defense, which was twice as much as it scored against the Cards in the desert last season.

Taking the Cardinals seems like a terrible idea considering how bad they've looked this year. In fact, they're 0-5 against the spread. But the Bucs have also failed to cover their last three games, and they remain incredibly banged up on defense, with Kwon Alexander still out, Lavonte David and Robert Ayers questionable and a cluster of injuries at safety. The Cardinals can throw the ball around, and that's helped them post an average yards-per-play differential despite their lack of a running game. They've also fared well against the run, and I like them to slow down Jameis Winston away from Tampa.

I've been on the Cardinals a few times this season and have had no success as they've been disappointing. They haven't covered any of their five games, but they also haven't sunk to the depths of where Tampa Bay is five points better on a neutral field. What has Tampa Bay done so well? Its defense gives up almost 400 ypg and it has covered just one game. Arizona will move the ball at home. I'm on the Cardinals -- again.