In addition to my full game pick, I'm also playing the Saints -3 in the first half. The Saints are well rested and ready to play at home.

I'm not convinced Matthew Stafford is 100% healthy and ready for this game. After making minor adjustments, my simulations make the Saints -6.5 favorites on their home field. Lay it.

In addition to my ATS pick, I'm also playing the Saints on the money line now that the price has dipped. This is a perfect spot for New Orleans against a banged-up Lions team that has outperformed its metrics.

I have Detroit's pass defense ranked #10; they're fourth in interceptions and 15th in TD passes allowed. The unit is capable of slowing Drew Brees. The Lions will face the weakest defense they've seen all year. Take the team with the far better defense getting points.

The Saints come into this game well-rested after their bye, with only three players on the injury report as questionable. The Lions on the other hand have injuries up and down the roster. While Matthew Stafford is listed as questionable, he should be a go, but he'll be at less than 100 percent. What about Rick Wagner and T.J. Lang on the offensive line? Or Ezekiel Ansah? The Lions have also posted one of the worst yards-per-play differentials in the league (negative-0.8), meaning their true talent is likely far lower than their record indicates. I think the Saints get ahead early, and their improved defense staves off a possible backdoor cover late.

You can see why this total is at 50; with two high-powered offenses in a dome, everyone is expecting a track meet. But not me. The Saints defense stepped up on the road in their two games before the bye, and Football Outsiders' DVOA paints them as an average team against the pass, which is a massive step up for this particular franchise. The Lions defense has played well this year, ranking eighth overall in DVOA, which will help slow the Saints down a little bit. I'm taking this total with the expectation we see a final of somewhere around 24-20.

Jumping on this now before the line gets any higher. Whether Matthew Stafford plays or not, he won't be 100 percent and the Lions' offense is struggling regardless. The Saints are rested and finding their groove. Lay it.