I was hesitant to hop on this game, as even though performance to date says this line is at least 3-4 points off, you can't count out the Patriots coming off a loss or playing on a short week, where the Bill Belichick edge is apparent against virtually any other coach. But with Gronk reportedly sidelined for this game, I like taking the Bucs at +4 or better. Considering how bad the New England defense has been to date, the door should be wide open for a backdoor cover by Jameis Winston if needed.

The only game in which the Patriots performed well was at New Orleans in almost the same situation, as 5.5-point road favorites. That's their only cover. But in three home games, they allowed the opponent to jump on them. Tampa Bay is a team I think can do some damage at home downfield against the NFL's worst defense. I'm on the home dog.

The Patriots have big problems on defense, currently ranked last in total defense and 31st in ppg at 32. I'm sure coach Bill Belichick will get the defense straightened out, but a road game on short rest against a potent Bucs squad doesn’t bode well for a turnaround this week.

Everyone’s offense gets healthy against this Patriots defense. While I do expect them to get things figured out eventually, I just don’t see it happening this game vs. Jameis Winston & the Bucs. Also, the Bucs' defense is pretty good and will generate turnovers.

The Bucs have won six straight home games and their talented offense is facing what looks like one of the worst NFL defenses in recent memory. But when you look at the Pats' offense versus Tampa Bay's defense, the matchup seems even more lopsided. The Bucs' defense played nearly 80 snaps against the Giants, and has now gone two straight games without a sack or turnover. Key starters are hurt. I expect New England to control the ball for long stretches and wear down the Bucs. Also look for the Pats to use Stephon Gilmore in more man coverage since he keeps blowing assignments in zone. There's also the Bill Belichick-after-a-loss factor. Lay it.