I believe the Chargers are improved over last year, though it hasn't shown up yet in their record. Their season is over if they don't come up with a huge effort today. This line would be under a field goal had San Diego simply gotten into better field-goal position at the end of last week's 19-17 loss to Miami. I'm taking the value with the desperate home dog.

The Chargers had nothing but problems with Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi and now face an even quicker back in Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs are the better team, and the Chargers are under the guidance of a new head coach, playing in a city that has not accepted them yet.

Three of the last 11 meetings have gone to overtime. And while the Chiefs have dominated the series lately, winning six in a row straight-up, these divisional rivals tend to keep it close. L.A. could easily be 2-0 had Younghoe Koo not blown late field goals. There should be a sense of urgency in the Chargers’ camp, and their desperation should rule the day as the Chiefs feel less immediacy. K.C. has sliced through two opponents but will descend to its proper level -- good, not great, team -- Sunday.

The Chiefs have won the past six meetings against the Chargers by three points or more, and they look like one of the better teams in the league so far at 2-0 straight up and ATS. The Chargers look like one of the more troubled teams, a continuation of their mediocrity from the past few years. Andy Reid obviously has them figured out. The Chargers are now 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games. Chiefs are the play.