Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
No time for a long writeup, but going Under here. The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 Packers' home games, and 12-3 in Seattle's last 15 December games.
The total has shrunk by two points as prospects of inclement weather enter the picture. The forecast is less than daunting -- about 30 degrees with light snow. It should not impact the scoring. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has endured sub-40 temperatures in seven NFL outings and has a sparkling 109.4 passer rating in them, with five times as many TD throws as interceptions. His counterpart, Aaron Rodgers, thrives in shivery conditions. And he will attack a defense without its formation-caller, injured FS Earl Thomas. All the elements align for this to go Over the total.
The motivational factors heavily favor the Packers, who have won their last two home games while allowing just 23 total points and 496 total yards. The Seahawks have extreme home-road splits, and the majority of their performances away from Seattle have been ugly. They have lost to three teams with losing records, while their road win over New England stands as their signature performance this season. These teams are surprisingly close in both total offense and defense, which gives the edge to the home team while getting a key number in your favor.
The Seahawks loss of Earl Thomas is critical in a matchup against a heavy pass attack like the Packers. Green Bay will enjoy a nice home field advantage at Lambo in the cold. I think the Packers can win this game outright, but I'm taking the points. GO PACK GO!
The Packers sure look like they've shored things up on both sides of the ball since ending a four-game losing streak, but could it be kind of a mirage? Are they really that far removed from the team that allowed 38 ppg during the losing streak? They won at Philadelphia against a fading Eagles squad that has a QB finally looking like a rookie, and they beat a miserable Texans offense that has gone 1-5 ATS on the road. Seattle has won four of its last five and has looked impressive offensively, and defensively. This is the time of year when Seattle puts it all together.
This should be a good spot for the Packers, who have typically had a great homefield advantage, against the Seahawks, who don't play nearly as well on the road. The loss of Earl Thomas is huge in a matchup against a top-notch passing attack, and the Packers do a good job in pass protection, helping to negate the Seahawks' pass rush. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win against the Panthers in primetime and will have to play the Rams on Thursday next week, so this is a good time to fade them, especially as road favorites against a quality opponent. One more note: Seattle is 0-6 in Green Bay since the turn of the century.