Over the last several years, the Cardinals have been a disaster ATS in long-distance road games. They've lost games in poor fashion against the Steelers, Falcons, Bills, and three straight years to the Panthers. For the first time this season, this Cardinals team can play a football game with expectations withdrawn. Playoff aspirations are out the window and decisions on jobs are on the line. Expect a higher sense of urgency from Arizona, which is facing a Dolphins team that rode the strength of an easy schedule.

This game will be a physical one because both teams are built the same way along the lines of scrimmage. Like I always say, all things being equal defensively, which quarterback can you trust? In this case, I trust the veteran Carson Palmer over Ryan Tannehill.

All the goodwill for the Dolphins came crashing down on the heels of a blowout loss to the Ravens last week, but they've managed to go 5-1 at home. The Cardinals have a great defense but can be run on by elite units; the Bills touched them up for 208 rushing yards in Week 3. They've also given up 20 points or more in each of their last five games (including three 30-spots in that stretch). The Cardinals have just one road win this year, and that came against Blaine Gabbert's 49ers on a Thursday; they've been unimpressive in their other road matchups, and I see that continuing here.

This is a modest total for a matchup of two respectable offenses -- and one sub-standard defense (Miami’s ranks No. 25). Of the dozen games completed by each squad, nine of Miami’s and eight of Arizona’s have exceeded this number. Weather will not inhibit either offense, with clear skies and temperatures in the 70s forecast. I was leaning toward the Cardinals but, when the line fell from +2.5 to +1, found the Over more to my liking.

The Cardinals stopped the bleeding last week with a home win over Washington. Now they travel cross-country to face a Miami team coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore. My projections show Arizona winning outright 60 percent of the time, making this a moneyline play. The Cardinals are way more talented than their record suggests.

Can 9-6-1 make the playoffs? That's what the Cardinals hope to do by winning their final five games. On paper, they're certainly better than five teams ahead of them in the muck. The game against Washington showed me they still have some heart and pride left and actually looked like last year's Cardinals for the first time since a Week 2 win against the Bucs. It was their first cover in six games. Miami looked really bad in a loss at Baltimore to end its six-game win streak and validated the low rating I had on them. Most of the early value (+2.5) is gone, but I'll still take the better team getting any points whatsoever.