Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
When I first broke down this game earlier this week, I liked the New Orleans side of it quite a bit. However, I'm not quite buying into the version of the Saints we saw on Sunday in what was clearly a personal matchup for Sean Payton. The Lions have a chance to take full control of the NFC North after the Vikings lost on Thursday, and Matthew Stafford is a good enough quarterback to give an improved Saints defense a lot of trouble. And that same Lions offense is always going to have backdoor cover potential while getting a lot of points.
I get the sky-high total. Saints games have blown past this number in four of six home gigs, and the other two encounters landed in the mid-to-high 40s against defensively rugged visitors (Denver, Seattle). Yet, I’m going Under because the Lions’ defense is decent, and their last five games have registered (in regulation time) 37, 33, 32, 45 and 29. While it’s too early to count them out, offensive stalwarts RB Mark Ingram (toe) and left tackle Terron Armstead (knee) have been unable to practice.
It was just last season when Detroit went into New Orleans and won 35-27, and I see something similar happening here, even though total-wise Detroit has stayed Under the total in its last five games. But the Lions are on a roll right now, winning and covering six of their last seven and looking to run away with the NFC North. The Saints have covered seven of their last eight, but they're still a losing team. How are they laying -5.5 here? I have Detroit rated a point higher and give the Superdome +2.5, so I?ve got the points with Detroit.
With extra rest, the Lions are a live underdog Sunday in New Orleans. My simulations show them winning outright 41 percent of the time, making the +200 moneyline a smart play. Detroit has won six of its past seven games; in that stretch, Matthew Stafford has thrown 12 TDs and one INT.