Even if Trevor Siemian plays, he won't be as mobile as usual on his aching left foot. Rookie Paxton Lynch didn't fare well in his only previous start. Whoever plays likely will be under duress, as Broncos QBs are getting sacked at the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Jags rank sixth in total defense and have been very competitive in their last four games. Take the points before this line drops further, as 4 is a key number.

The Broncos just got done playing five full quarters on Sunday night, which had to be exhausting for both teams. Now they'll have to travel cross-country for an early start time. Even with the opponent being the woeful Jaguars, this is too many points to be laying in this spot. The Jaguars have played plenty of close games at home, only getting blown out once in Jacksonville (and that was right before a Thursday night road game). They also can show up a bit defensively, and that'll help slow down DVOA's 24th-ranked offense.

The Jaguars have won only two games this season (4-6-1 ATS), and they are the least-opportunistic team in the league, with the worst turnover margin at -15. But I like what I've seen out of them in their last four games. They've battled and lost by an average of just five points per game, covering twice. I haven't downgraded them as much as the books have, and I don't have them getting over a field goal at home in this spot. This is a soft spot for Denver coming off tough loss. The play is on Jacksonville taking the points.